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FHNFirst Horizon CorporationHold6.1·$24.47-1.17%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

First Horizon has compiled a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging more than 10% above consensus and screens attractively at a forward P/E of 10.5x with a PEG of 0.36; however, there is no identified competitive moat to sustain long-term earnings power, the put/call ratio of 7.22 signals pronounced bearish options positioning, and the stock offers only 0.7% upside to its near-term resistance with an unfavorable risk/reward.

Thesis pillars

  • No Competitive MoatStable
  • Perfect Beat Streak Near Term CatalystDeteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation Low PegStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

First Horizon Corporation (FHN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

First Horizon Corporation provides commercial, consumer, wealth, and wholesale banking through First Horizon Bank, with $84 billion in total assets and over 450 locations in 23 U.S. states, concentrated in the South. Lending is the primary revenue driver across a $64 billion... Read more

$24.47+3.7% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#91 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.78%(5y avg 3.28%)Payout30.77%sustainable
Stop $23.65Target $25.38(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$28.20+15.2%20 analysts
$25.38our TP
$24.47price
$28.20mean
$31

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 14, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.7%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.8
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$11.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.2%
ROE11.5%
Rev Growth9.0%
Beta0.61
Dividend2.78%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV49%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.68Resistance $26.15

Price Targets

$24
$25
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-14 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FHN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $25.38 (+3.7%), stop $23.65 (−3.5%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FHN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.38 (+3.7% upside). Target $25.38 (+3.7%), stop $23.65 (−3.5%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $23.65.

What are the risks of investing in FHN?

Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is FHN overvalued or undervalued?

First Horizon Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FHN?

24 analysts cover FHN with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $28.

What does First Horizon Corporation do?First Horizon Corporation provides commercial, consumer, wealth, and wholesale banking through First Horizon Bank, with...

First Horizon Corporation provides commercial, consumer, wealth, and wholesale banking through First Horizon Bank, with $84 billion in total assets and over 450 locations in 23 U.S. states, concentrated in the South. Lending is the primary revenue driver across a $64 billion loan portfolio, with commercial and industrial loans the dominant segment; the wholesale banking arm serves institutional clients through fixed income trading and capital markets.

Related stocks: ONB (Old National Bancorp) · MBIN (Merchants Bancorp) · RNST (Renasant Corporation) · WF (Woori Financial Group Inc.) · OBK (Origin Bancorp, Inc.)
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