Skip to main content

FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (FCFS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Wait for pullback to $196.79. BUY gates pass at $216.34, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (4.7% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $196.79 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

FirstCash Holdings is the leading pawn operator with 3,300+ stores across the US (29 states), Latin America (Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia), and the UK (H&T acquired August 2025). Revenue comes from pawn loan fees, retail merchandise sales of collateral-forfeited... Read more

$216.34+12.8% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#6 of 28 Credit Services
Entry $196.79(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $182.71Target $222.71(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1Setup A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$241.40+11.6%5 analysts
$222.71our TP
$216.34price
$241.40mean
$252

Wait for pullback to $196.79. BUY gates pass at $216.34, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (4.7% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $196.79 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.75)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.7% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.3
P/E (Fwd)17.6
Mkt Cap$9.6B
EV/EBITDA16.5
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth25.7%
Beta0.47
Dividend0.77%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$145-33.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicLatin America
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's financial position and results of operations may fluctuate significantly due to fluctuations in currency exchange rates in most Latin American markets'
  • MEDIUMCommoditygold and precious metals
    10-K Item 1A: 'Declines in commodity market prices of gold, other precious metals and diamonds could negatively affect the Company's profits'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $188.50Resistance $227.26

Price Targets

$183
$197
$223
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R-0.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCFS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $196.79. BUY gates pass at $216.34, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (4.7% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $196.79 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $222.71 (+2.9%), stop $182.71 (−18.4%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FCFS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $222.71 (+12.8% upside). Target $222.71 (+2.9%), stop $182.71 (−18.4%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $182.71.

What are the risks of investing in FCFS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is FCFS overvalued or undervalued?

FirstCash Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.3 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FCFS?

13 analysts cover FCFS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $241.

What does FirstCash Holdings, Inc. do?FirstCash Holdings is the leading pawn operator with 3,300+ stores across the US (29 states), Latin America (Mexico,...

FirstCash Holdings is the leading pawn operator with 3,300+ stores across the US (29 states), Latin America (Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia), and the UK (H&T acquired August 2025). Revenue comes from pawn loan fees, retail merchandise sales of collateral-forfeited goods, and retail POS payment solutions (AFF).

Related stocks: JCAP (Jefferson Capital, Inc.) · SEZL (Sezzle Inc.) · ECPG (Encore Capital Group Inc) · ENVA (Enova International, Inc.) · OMF (OneMain Holdings, Inc.)