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ESTCElastic N.V.Hold5.6·$61.67+2.20%
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Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum.

Elastic N.V. develops the Elasticsearch Search AI Platform, offering Elastic Cloud (SaaS) and self-managed software for search, observability, and security use cases. FY2025 revenue was $1.483B (93% subscription) from ~21,500 customers; Elastic Cloud represented 46% of total... Read more

$61.67+8.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#51 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.30%
Stop $57.30Target $67.07(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$74.52+20.8%27 analysts
$67.07our TP
$61.67price
$74.52mean
$53
$120

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202673d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.6
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA-191.6
Profit Mgn21.1%
ROE33.4%
Rev Growth16.0%
Beta0.98
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C4.56bearish
IV109%elevated
Max Pain$25-59.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerchannel partner12%
    10-K Item 1: 'One customer, a channel partner, accounted for 12% of total revenue for the year ended April 30, 2025 and 11% of total revenue for the year ended April 30, 2024.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Rsi
3.6
Obv
4.3
Ma Position
6.0
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.8
Support Resistance
3.9
Bollinger
4.0
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.55Resistance $68.72

Price Targets

$57
$67
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESTC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.67, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $67.07 (+8.8%), stop $57.30 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ESTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $67.07 (+8.9% upside). Target $67.07 (+8.8%), stop $57.30 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $57.30.

What are the risks of investing in ESTC?

Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ESTC overvalued or undervalued?

Elastic N.V. trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ESTC?

36 analysts cover ESTC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $75.

What does Elastic N.V. do?Elastic N.V. develops the Elasticsearch Search AI Platform, offering Elastic Cloud (SaaS) and self-managed software for...

Elastic N.V. develops the Elasticsearch Search AI Platform, offering Elastic Cloud (SaaS) and self-managed software for search, observability, and security use cases. FY2025 revenue was $1.483B (93% subscription) from ~21,500 customers; Elastic Cloud represented 46% of total revenue.

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