Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.02 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Elastic N.V. is a software company offering Elasticsearch-based Search AI solutions — Elastic Observability and Elastic Security — available as cloud service or self-managed software to ~21,500 customers. Total revenue was $1.483B for fiscal year ended April 30, 2025 (17%... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.02 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductElastic Cloud46%10-K Item 1A: 'For the years ended April 30, 2025, 2024, and 2023, Elastic Cloud contributed 46%, 43%, and 40% of our total revenue, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.02 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $45.66. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $70.73 (+44.1% upside). Prior stop was $45.66. Stop-loss: $45.66.
Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.04% of cap).
Elastic N.V. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts cover ESTC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $79.
What does Elastic N.V. do?Elastic N.V. is a software company offering Elasticsearch-based Search AI solutions — Elastic Observability and Elastic...
Elastic N.V. is a software company offering Elasticsearch-based Search AI solutions — Elastic Observability and Elastic Security — available as cloud service or self-managed software to ~21,500 customers. Total revenue was $1.483B for fiscal year ended April 30, 2025 (17% growth); subscriptions accounted for 93% of revenue with Elastic Cloud contributing 46%.