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CVICVR Energy Inc.Sell5.1·$31.38-5.82%
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CVR Energy Inc. (CVI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.38: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

CVR Energy is a diversified holding company engaged in petroleum refining (two mid-continent refineries in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK), nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing via CVR Partners LP, and a renewable fuels segment (RDU reverted to hydrocarbon processing in December... Read more

$31.38+13.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-3.05%
IncomeYield0.30%(5y avg 8.85%)Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $29.67Target $35.70(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$30.67-2.3%6 analysts
$35.70our TP
$31.38price
$30.67mean
$27
$36

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.38: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CVR Energy Inc.

About CVR Energy Inc.

CVR Energy processed 98,757 bpd at its Coffeyville, Kansas refinery and 68,186 bpd at its Wynnewood, Oklahoma refinery in 2025, against nameplate capacities of 132,000 bpd and 74,500 bpd, respectively. The company controls CVR Partners, LP, a publicly traded nitrogen fertilizer producer with facilities in Coffeyville and East Dubuque, Illinois. In December 2025, CVR Energy reverted its Wynnewood renewable diesel unit to conventional hydrocarbon service after unfavorable renewable economics.

The Petroleum Segment produces gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and other refined products sold to retailers, railroads, farm cooperatives, and other refiners in the Group 3 PADD II mid-continent market, largely at spot prices indexed to NYMEX WTI. The company's gathering system — including owned, leased, and joint-venture pipelines — supplied 67% and 94% of the Coffeyville and Wynnewood refineries' crude oil needs, respectively, in 2025, providing a WTI-basis transportation cost advantage. The largest Petroleum Segment customer accounted for 12% of net sales in 2025. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Segment, operated via CVR Partners, derives revenue primarily from UAN (67% of segment 2025 net sales) and ammonia (24%), sold to agricultural retailers and industrial customers; the top two fertilizer customers represented 28% of segment net sales in 2025. Primary competitors in the mid-continent refining market include CHS Inc.'s McPherson Refinery, HF Sinclair Corporation's El Dorado and Tulsa Refineries, and Valero Energy Corporation's Ardmore Refinery.

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Both CVR Energy refineries sit in the southern portion of Group 3 of the PADD II region, where the company primarily markets refined products. The 10-K explicitly flags this as a structural risk, noting CVR Energy is more susceptible to regional economic conditions than geographically diversified competitors. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Segment's sales to agricultural customers are further concentrated in the Great Plains and Midwest states, creating a seasonal demand profile that can shift materially based on weather and planting decisions. If regional crude differentials narrow or regional product demand weakens, revenue from both the Petroleum and Nitrogen Fertilizer segments could weigh on results simultaneously.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

From CVR Energy Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — CVR Energy Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-15.0% upside)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)20.4
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn-0.6%
ROE4.6%
Rev Growth20.3%
Beta0.79
Dividend0.30%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV81%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.5
Roa
1.8
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.3
Piotroski F
5.6
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
7.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Erm
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 30.0%
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.59Resistance $36.43

Price Targets

$30
$36
A.Upside+13.8%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.38: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $29.67. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CVI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.70 (+13.8% upside). Prior stop was $29.67. Stop-loss: $29.67.

What are the risks of investing in CVI?

Target reached (-15.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is CVI overvalued or undervalued?

CVR Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CVI?

15 analysts cover CVI with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $31.

What does CVR Energy Inc. do?CVR Energy is a diversified holding company engaged in petroleum refining (two mid-continent refineries in Coffeyville,...

CVR Energy is a diversified holding company engaged in petroleum refining (two mid-continent refineries in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK), nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing via CVR Partners LP, and a renewable fuels segment (RDU reverted to hydrocarbon processing in December 2025). Revenue comes from selling gasoline, diesel, UAN, and ammonia to fuel retailers, railroads, and agricultural customers in the PADD II region. Icahn Enterprises owned ~70% of CVR Energy common stock as of December 31, 2025.

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