Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
CVI · Why this verdict
Why CVR Energy (CVI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.5 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 20% YoY
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.5 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 2.5 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 20%
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 30.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.11
Upside
-20.1%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 7.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.6, Value at 7.2, and Technical at 5.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Momentum at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.