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CSTMConstellium SESell5.9·$32.83-3.98%
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Constellium SE (CSTM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Aluminum

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $32.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%).

Constellium SE is a global manufacturer of high value-added specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving aerospace, packaging, automotive, and industrial markets, operating 24 facilities across North America and Europe. Revenue derives from converting aluminum into... Read more

$32.83+6.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 4 Aluminum
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.51%
Stop $31.62Target $36.25(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$37.24+13.4%5 analysts
$36.25our TP
$32.83price
$37.24mean
$40

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $32.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Constellium SE

About Constellium SE

Constellium SE's top 10 customers represented approximately 56% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, concentrated across aerospace, beverage packaging, and automotive OEM end-markets served from 24 manufacturing facilities and 3 R&D centers. The company invested $51 million in R&D in 2025, holding more than 270 active patent families, with operations spanning the United States, France, Germany, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, China, Spain, Canada, and Mexico.

Constellium earns conversion margins — the spread between aluminum input cost and realized selling price — rather than carrying raw metal price risk; the company employs back-to-back physical arrangements and derivative financial instruments to achieve aluminum price neutrality. The Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment supplies canstock and closure stock to beverage companies and can makers in North America and Europe, where canstock demand is projected by CRU to grow at 2.8% and 3.5% per annum between 2025 and 2030. The Aerospace & Transportation segment provides plates, sheets, and extrusions — including the proprietary Airware aluminum-lithium alloy — predominantly under multi-year contracts to commercial and military aerospace customers who require lengthy NADCAP qualification. Natural gas and electricity represent one of the largest cost components after metal, labor, and depreciation; the company secures a large portion of energy needs under fixed-price forward contracts, though prolonged price volatility could weigh on margins where pass-through mechanisms are incomplete.

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The 10-K's disclosure that the top 10 customers represent approximately 56% of revenue — above the HIGH threshold — is compounded by Constellium's dedicated-facility model: the company operates plants specifically configured for certain customers, concentrating revenue-loss exposure at individual sites if those customers reduce volume. The filing names the risk that customers in packaging, automotive, and aerospace could consolidate further, potentially exerting greater pricing pressure on suppliers. Multi-year aerospace contracts provide visibility on volumes and profitability, but the same agreements carry customer termination rights.

See also: Basic Materials · Aluminum

From Constellium SE's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE45.7%
Rev Growth24.4%
Beta1.54
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV95%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop 10 customers56%
    10-K Item 1: 'our 10 largest customers representing approximately 56% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMSuppliertop 10 metal suppliers49%
    10-K Item 1: 'the top 10 suppliers accounted for approximately 49% of our total metal purchases (in terms of volumes) for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.8
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.85Resistance $36.99

Price Targets

$32
$36
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.7% upside)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $32.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $31.62. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CSTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.25 (+6.6% upside). Prior stop was $31.62. Stop-loss: $31.62.

What are the risks of investing in CSTM?

Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Is CSTM overvalued or undervalued?

Constellium SE trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CSTM?

10 analysts cover CSTM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Constellium SE do?Constellium SE is a global manufacturer of high value-added specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving...

Constellium SE is a global manufacturer of high value-added specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products serving aerospace, packaging, automotive, and industrial markets, operating 24 facilities across North America and Europe. Revenue derives from converting aluminum into semi-fabricated products with a pass-through metal pricing model, with top-10 customers representing approximately 56% of 2025 revenue. Long qualification cycles and joint product development create high switching costs with key customers.

Related stocks: KALU (Kaiser Aluminum Corporation) · AA (Alcoa Corporation) · CENX (Century Aluminum Company) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited)
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