Constellium offers an inexpensive entry — forward P/E of 11.9x, PEG of 0.03, and 24% revenue growth — supported by three consecutive earnings beats, but negative free cash flow, top-10 customer concentration at 56% of revenues, and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.63 collectively leave the setup unattractive for new capital at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Three Consecutive Earnings Beats↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Forward Valuation↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Constellium SE (CSTM) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.43 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
Constellium SE develops and manufactures specialty aluminum rolled and extruded products across three segments — Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry — from 24 manufacturing facilities at December 31, 2025.... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.43 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Constellium SE
About Constellium SE
Constellium SE's top 10 customers represented approximately 56% of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, concentrated across aerospace, beverage packaging, and automotive OEM end-markets served from 24 manufacturing facilities and 3 R&D centers. The company invested $51 million in R&D in 2025, holding more than 270 active patent families, with operations spanning the United States, France, Germany, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, China, Spain, Canada, and Mexico.
Constellium earns conversion margins — the spread between aluminum input cost and realized selling price — rather than carrying raw metal price risk; the company employs back-to-back physical arrangements and derivative financial instruments to achieve aluminum price neutrality. The Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment supplies canstock and closure stock to beverage companies and can makers in North America and Europe, where canstock demand is projected by CRU to grow at 2.8% and 3.5% per annum between 2025 and 2030. The Aerospace & Transportation segment provides plates, sheets, and extrusions — including the proprietary Airware aluminum-lithium alloy — predominantly under multi-year contracts to commercial and military aerospace customers who require lengthy NADCAP qualification. Natural gas and electricity represent one of the largest cost components after metal, labor, and depreciation; the company secures a large portion of energy needs under fixed-price forward contracts, though prolonged price volatility could weigh on margins where pass-through mechanisms are incomplete.
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The 10-K's disclosure that the top 10 customers represent approximately 56% of revenue — above the HIGH threshold — is compounded by Constellium's dedicated-facility model: the company operates plants specifically configured for certain customers, concentrating revenue-loss exposure at individual sites if those customers reduce volume. The filing names the risk that customers in packaging, automotive, and aerospace could consolidate further, potentially exerting greater pricing pressure on suppliers. Multi-year aerospace contracts provide visibility on volumes and profitability, but the same agreements carry customer termination rights.
See also: Basic Materials · Aluminum
From Constellium SE's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Constellium SE
Latest news
- NEWS CSTM Looks 34.6% Overvalued on GF Value™ as of July 29, 2026 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS CSTM Looks 41.7% Overvalued on GF Value™ - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Constellium Q2 2026 EPS Tops Expectations by 18.2%, Revenue Up 31% - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet positive
- NEWS Is Constellium SE (CSTM) Overvalued After Q2 Earnings Beat? EPS - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CSTM) Constellium SE Reports Q2 Revenue $2.75B, vs. FactSet Est of $2.73B - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-10 customers56%10-K Item 1: 'our 10 largest customers representing approximately 56% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMSuppliertop-10 metal suppliers10-K Item 1: 'the top 10 suppliers accounted for approximately 49% of our total metal purchases (in terms of volumes) for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.43 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $22.72. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $29.09 (+19.1% upside). Prior stop was $22.72. Stop-loss: $22.72.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
Constellium SE trades at a P/E of 6.0 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CSTM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $33.
What does Constellium SE do?Constellium SE develops and manufactures specialty aluminum rolled and extruded products across three segments —...
Constellium SE develops and manufactures specialty aluminum rolled and extruded products across three segments — Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry — from 24 manufacturing facilities at December 31, 2025. Revenue is earned through conversion margins on technically advanced products sold under multi-year contracts to aerospace, beverage packaging, and automotive OEM customers globally.