Alcoa Corporation (AA) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Sell if holding. At $68.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum and alumina.
Alcoa Corporation mines bauxite, refines alumina, and smelts aluminum through Alumina and Aluminum segments across 25 operating locations in eight countries on five continents. The company had consolidated aluminum smelting capacity of 2,645,000 metric tons per year and produced... Read more
Sell if holding. At $68.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum and alumina. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=9.4x,ratio=0.53x. Suitability: aggressive.
About Alcoa Corporation
About Alcoa Corporation
Alcoa's consolidated aluminum smelting capacity totaled 2,645,000 metric tons per year across 11 active smelters in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and the United States as of December 31, 2025. Alumina consolidated refining capacity stood at 11,653,000 metric tons per year, and total bauxite production reached 37.5 million dry metric tons in 2025. Energy costs comprised approximately 24% of alumina refining production costs and 24% of primary aluminum production costs.
Alcoa generates revenue through two segments. The Alumina segment prices smelter-grade alumina primarily through the API index — a weighted average of three published daily spot prices — with approximately 95% of third-party smelter-grade alumina shipments in 2025 sold on API-adjusted or fixed-price spot basis. The company's largest alumina customer is its own aluminum smelters, which consumed approximately 34% of total alumina shipments in 2025, with the remainder sold to external customers including alumina traders. The Aluminum segment earns the LME base price plus a regional premium and a product premium based on shape and alloy. Power contracts vary significantly by region: Canadian smelters use Hydro-Québec contracts expiring December 31, 2029; the Iceland smelter receives hydroelectric power from Landsvirkjun under a 40-year contract expiring 2048; and the San Ciprián smelter in Spain purchases power from the variable spot market, hedged via fixed-for-floating swap contracts expiring December 2027.
Show full overview
In Western Australia, Alcoa continued to advance mine approvals for next major mine regions (Myara North and Holyoake) through the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority, where a prolonged approval process forced mining of lower-grade bauxite starting April 2023 — increasing caustic, energy, and bauxite costs while reducing alumina output. The company anticipates mining in new major mine regions will commence no earlier than 2029, with bauxite quality expected to remain at recent reduced grades until then. Section 232 tariff costs on aluminum imports reached $571 million in 2025, reflecting a 50% tariff effective June 4, 2025 on Canadian aluminum imports.
See also: Basic Materials · Aluminum
From Alcoa Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-13Recent Developments — Alcoa Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Alcoa Corporation (AA): Upside Potential Attracts Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
- NEWS Alcoa Corporation (AA): Upside Potential Attracts Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Alcoa Can See Tailwinds Driven By Geopolitical Risk (NYSE:AA) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Alcoa (AA) Drops More Than 5.9% During the Day: What Is Causing This Steep Decline? - Bitget — Bitget negative
- NEWS Alcoa (AA) Gets a Buy from B. Riley Securities - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommodityaluminum and alumina10-K Item 1A: 'materially adversely affected by volatility and declines in aluminum and alumina demand and prices'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-11Item 5.02LOWAt the May 6, 2026 Annual Meeting, Alcoa shareholders approved the Alcoa Corporation Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan (Amended and Restated), increasing authorized shares from 30 million to 38 million and extending the plan term to May 6, 2036.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $68.95, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum and alumina. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $63.96. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $71.56 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $63.96. Stop-loss: $63.96.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: aluminum and alumina; Thin upside margin: 4.1%.
Alcoa Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover AA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $82.
What does Alcoa Corporation do?Alcoa Corporation mines bauxite, refines alumina, and smelts aluminum through Alumina and Aluminum segments across 25...
Alcoa Corporation mines bauxite, refines alumina, and smelts aluminum through Alumina and Aluminum segments across 25 operating locations in eight countries on five continents. The company had consolidated aluminum smelting capacity of 2,645,000 metric tons per year and produced 37.5 million dry metric tons of bauxite in 2025; revenue tracks LME aluminum prices and the Alumina Price Index, both subject to significant market volatility.