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CENXCentury Aluminum CompanySell5.1·$54.04-11.68%
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Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Aluminum

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.04 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%).

Century Aluminum Company produces primary aluminum at smelters in Robards, Kentucky (Sebree), Goose Creek, South Carolina (Mt. Holly), and Grundartangi, Iceland, with 2025 output of 638,000 tonnes against 770,000 tpy capacity. Revenue is priced on the LME base plus regional... Read more

$54.04+28.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#4 of 4 Aluminum
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.42%
Stop $51.91Target $69.13(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$81.33+50.5%3 analysts
$69.13our TP
$54.04price
$81.33mean
$86

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.04 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=4.5x,ratio=0.25x. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Century Aluminum Company

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 28%
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%)
Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.2
P/E (Fwd)4.5
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA22.2
Profit Mgn13.7%
ROE32.3%
Rev Growth2.4%
Beta1.92
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.15bearish
IV100%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerGlencore54%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 54.0% of our consolidated net sales from Glencore'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.6
Rsi
8.2
Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
6.3
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5MATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=4.5x,ratio=0.25xA.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $53.52Resistance $70.43

Price Targets

$52
$69
A.Upside+27.9%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.5x,ratio=0.25x

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CENX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $54.04 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $51.91. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CENX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.13 (+28.1% upside). Prior stop was $51.91. Stop-loss: $51.91.

What are the risks of investing in CENX?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is CENX overvalued or undervalued?

Century Aluminum Company trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 4.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CENX?

11 analysts cover CENX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $81.

What does Century Aluminum Company do?Century Aluminum Company produces primary aluminum at smelters in Robards, Kentucky (Sebree), Goose Creek, South...

Century Aluminum Company produces primary aluminum at smelters in Robards, Kentucky (Sebree), Goose Creek, South Carolina (Mt. Holly), and Grundartangi, Iceland, with 2025 output of 638,000 tonnes against 770,000 tpy capacity. Revenue is priced on the LME base plus regional premiums; 54% of 2025 sales went to Glencore plc.

Related stocks: CSTM (Constellium SE) · KALU (Kaiser Aluminum Corporation) · AA (Alcoa Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation)
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