Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.60; Below-average business quality.
Century Aluminum operates primary aluminum smelters in Sebree, KY; Mt. Holly, SC; and Grundartangi, Iceland, with ~770,000 tpy total production capacity (638,000 tonnes produced in 2025). Revenue is derived from selling standard and value-added aluminum products; Glencore... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.60; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerGlencore54%10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 54.0% of our consolidated net sales from Glencore'
- HIGHCommodityprimary aluminum10-K Item 1A: 'Our operating results depend on the market for primary aluminum which can be volatile and subject to many factors beyond our control'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-03Item 4.02HIGHCentury Aluminum announced non-reliance on previously issued financial statements due to an accounting change for Jamalco joint venture assets, switching from proportionate consolidation to full consolidation with noncontrolling interest. Prior period financials will be restated.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.60; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $55.76. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $67.43 (+14.3% upside). Prior stop was $55.76. Stop-loss: $55.76.
Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: primary aluminum; Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Century Aluminum Company trades at a P/E of 141.5 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CENX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $79.
What does Century Aluminum Company do?Century Aluminum operates primary aluminum smelters in Sebree, KY; Mt. Holly, SC; and Grundartangi, Iceland, with...
Century Aluminum operates primary aluminum smelters in Sebree, KY; Mt. Holly, SC; and Grundartangi, Iceland, with ~770,000 tpy total production capacity (638,000 tonnes produced in 2025). Revenue is derived from selling standard and value-added aluminum products; Glencore accounted for ~54% of 2025 consolidated net sales.