Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Sell if holding. At $61.17, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%).
Century Aluminum Company produces primary aluminum at smelters in Robards, Kentucky (Sebree), Goose Creek, South Carolina (Mt. Holly), and Grundartangi, Iceland, with 2025 output of 638,000 tonnes against 770,000 tpy capacity. Revenue is priced on the LME base plus regional... Read more
Sell if holding. At $61.17, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=4.5x,ratio=0.25x. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-14Recent Developments — Century Aluminum Company
Latest news
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Century Aluminum, Raises Price Target to $79 — benzinga May 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS Century Aluminum Q1 Adj. EPS $1.63 Misses $1.80 Estimate, Sales $649.200M Beat $636.350M Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Century Aluminum Announces Restart Of Production In Second Potline At Its Norðurál Smelter In Iceland — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Century Aluminum, Raises Price Target to $77 — benzinga Apr 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS 5 Precious Metal Stocks to Buy as Gold and Silver Rebound — benzinga Apr 8, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerGlencore54%10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 54.0% of our consolidated net sales from Glencore'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $61.17, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%). Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $56.91. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $69.13 (+13.0% upside). Prior stop was $56.91. Stop-loss: $56.91.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.25× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (4).
Century Aluminum Company trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 4.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover CENX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $81.
What does Century Aluminum Company do?Century Aluminum Company produces primary aluminum at smelters in Robards, Kentucky (Sebree), Goose Creek, South...
Century Aluminum Company produces primary aluminum at smelters in Robards, Kentucky (Sebree), Goose Creek, South Carolina (Mt. Holly), and Grundartangi, Iceland, with 2025 output of 638,000 tonnes against 770,000 tpy capacity. Revenue is priced on the LME base plus regional premiums; 54% of 2025 sales went to Glencore plc.