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KGCKinross Gold CorporationBuy Wait7.2·$23.39+0.80%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Kinross Gold offers exceptional business quality — a 35% return on equity, 36% margins, and 61% revenue growth — at a deeply discounted valuation of 8x forward earnings with roughly 30% potential upside and a nearly 5-to-1 favorable risk/reward ratio; the primary near-term hurdles are elevated leverage and a technical setup that has not yet produced a confirmed breakout above resistance.

Thesis pillars

  • Favorable Asymmetry GeometryStable
  • Exceptional Quality CompounderStable
  • Growth Priced At Deep DiscountStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $23.69 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative news sentiment (-0.67); Negative momentum.

Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Canada, and Mauritania. It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing... Read more

$23.39+33.8% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#3 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield10.24%
IncomeYield0.62%(5y avg 1.80%)Payout5.74%sustainable
Entry $23.69(support + ATR (held))Stop $21.91Target $31.32(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$36.01+53.9%10 analysts
$31.32our TP
$23.39price
$36.01mean
$9
$54

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $23.69 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative news sentiment (-0.67); Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.4 < 4.5 minimum; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and sector concentration cap sector=basic materials count=3 cap=3. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.2/10
High-quality business
Risks
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.0
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$27.7B
EV/EBITDA5.3
Profit Mgn36.0%
ROE35.5%
Rev Growth60.8%
Beta1.41
Dividend0.62%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$33+41.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·3 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
9.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5SECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials count=3 cap=3A.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.29Resistance $25.12

Price Targets

$22
$24
$31
A.Upside+33.8%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %4.4%
Max %8.9%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 3.4 < 4.5 minimum
! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KGC stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $23.69 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative news sentiment (-0.67); Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.4 < 4.5 minimum; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Target $31.32 (+33.9%), stop $21.91 (−6.8%), A.R:R 4.4:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.32 (+33.8% upside). Target $31.32 (+33.9%), stop $21.91 (−6.8%), A.R:R 4.4:1. Stop-loss: $21.91.

What are the risks of investing in KGC?

Negative news sentiment (-0.67); Negative momentum.

Is KGC overvalued or undervalued?

Kinross Gold Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about KGC?

15 analysts cover KGC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Kinross Gold Corporation do?Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of...

Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Canada, and Mauritania. It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing ores; reclamation of gold mining properties; and production and sale of silver. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · CGAU (Centerra Gold Inc.) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation)
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