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CGNTCognyte Software Ltd.Sell6.0·$9.96
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Cognyte combines an attractively valued multiple, a wide economic moat, and a three-of-four-quarter earnings beat streak with a business quality score still flagged as below average, a Rule of 40 fail, and a risk/reward ratio that falls just short of the engine's asymmetry bar, making this a hold pending confirmation that the recent miss was a blip rather than a trend.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Strong Balance Sheet→Stable
  • Attractive Valuation Wide Moat→Stable
  • Recent Miss After Beat Streak→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Cognyte Software Ltd. (CGNT) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. At $9.96, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Cognyte Software Ltd., a software-driven technology company, focuses on investigative analytics solutions worldwide. The company offers network intelligence analytics, threat intelligence analytics, decision intelligence analytics, and operational intelligence analytics... Read more

$9.96+5.3% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#33 of 99 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.89%
Stop $9.26Analyst target $10.48(−15% haircut)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst consensus$12.33+23.9%3 analysts
$10.48Analyst target
$9.96price
$12.33mean
$14

Sell if holding. At $9.96, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Dec 8, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.3%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)12.9
Mkt Cap$735M
EV/EBITDA26.2
Profit Mgn-0.0%
ROE2.2%
Rev Growth12.0%
Beta1.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV79%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.6
Support Resistance
2.4
Gap
6.0
52w Position
6.2
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.27Resistance $10.49

Price Targets

$9
$10
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-08 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGNT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $9.96, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $9.26. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CGNT stock price target?

Analyst target: $10.48 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $9.26. Stop-loss: $9.26.

What are the risks of investing in CGNT?

Thin upside margin: 5.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is CGNT overvalued or undervalued?

Cognyte Software Ltd. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CGNT?

10 analysts cover CGNT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Cognyte Software Ltd. do?Cognyte Software Ltd., a software-driven technology company, focuses on investigative analytics solutions worldwide....

Cognyte Software Ltd., a software-driven technology company, focuses on investigative analytics solutions worldwide. The company offers network intelligence analytics, threat intelligence analytics, decision intelligence analytics, and operational intelligence analytics solutions. It also offers software products, including subscription or perpetual licenses and appliances that include software that is essential to the product's functionality; software services, such as support and cloud-based SaaS subscriptions; and professional services and others comprising installation and integration services, customer specific development work, resale of third-party hardware, and consulting and training services. In addition, the company provides customer support, professional, and integration services. It serves governments agencies, including national, regional, and local government agencies. Cognyte Software Ltd. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Herzliya, Israel.

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