PGY combines a strong earnings beat streak and deep-value multiple with a short-squeeze setup, but sits in a confirmed technical downtrend with leverage penalties still weighing on the score.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak With Rising Estimates→Stable
- Attractive Deep Value Multiple↓Deteriorating
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.7/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.63.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.7/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.63. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
Latest news
- NEWS Pagaya Trades at a Discount: Is the Stock Worth Investing In? - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Chief accounting officer Cory Vieira sells $36,976 of Pagaya stock - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Pagaya Technologies president Sanjiv Das sells $243,672 in shares - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Pagaya Technologies president Sanjiv Das sells $243,672 in shares By Investing.com - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK negative
- NEWS Earnings To Watch: Pagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) Reports Q2 2026 Result - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-29T13:34:03Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of Partners10-K Item 1A: 'Currently, a limited number of Partners account for a substantial portion of our Network Volume, the financial products facilitated with the assistance of our AI technology, and, ultimately, our Revenue.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Evangelos Perros announced he will step down effective June 15, 2026, not related to any disagreement with the Company; Jonathan Dobres (Chief Strategy Officer) will succeed him as CFO. Perros remains as a Strategic Executive Advisor to the CEO through December 31, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.47: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.7/10 and A.R:R 1.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.63. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $19.04. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $25.07 (+22.5% upside). Prior stop was $19.04. Stop-loss: $19.04.
Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0).
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 5.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover PGY with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Pagaya Technologies Ltd. do?Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial...
Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands. The company offers Decline Monetization, the flagship product which allows Partners to automatically send rejected loan applications to its network, as well as approve customers they would otherwise decline; Dual Look which allows to assess applications concurrently with its Partners in real time; and First Look that routes designated segments of loan applications to the network for evaluation.It also provides Affiliate Optimizer Engine, a customer acquisition tool which enables Partners to originate loans through third-party affiliate channels; Direct Marketing Engine, that utilizes data network to help Partners target and acquire new customers through direct channels; and FastPass which accelerates the transaction process. Its partners include financial technology companies, incumbent banks and financial institutions, auto finance providers, and residential real estate service providers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in New York, New York.