A bankruptcy-related news flag, two recent earnings misses, a confirmed long-term downtrend, and an exceptionally elevated put/call ratio combine to shift the risk calculus decisively toward caution — the theoretical 17.5% upside to the analyst target does not offset the severity of these concurrent warning signals.
Thesis pillars
- Leverage Limits Financial Flexibility↑Improving
- Bankruptcy News Risk Flag↑Improving
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. At $40.57, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Carlyle Group manages $477 billion in assets under management across three segments — Global Private Equity ($164 billion), Global Credit ($211 billion), and Carlyle AlpInvest ($102 billion) — from 27 offices across four continents. Revenue is earned through management fees on... Read more
Sell if holding. At $40.57, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About The Carlyle Group Inc.
About The Carlyle Group Inc.
Carlyle Group managed $477 billion in assets under management at December 31, 2025, an 8% increase from $441 billion at year-end 2024, driven by $53.7 billion of inflows — a 32% increase from 2024. The firm's three segments split as Global Credit at $211 billion (44% of total AUM), Global Private Equity at $164 billion (34%), and Carlyle AlpInvest at $102 billion (21%). Carlyle is regulated through its TCG Capital Markets subsidiary as a FINRA-registered broker-dealer, with the broader firm subject to SEC investment adviser oversight.
Carlyle earns management fees on fee-earning AUM and performance allocations when carry fund realizations exceed return hurdles. Global Credit — the fastest-growing segment over the past five years, with AUM nearly quadrupling in that period — generated $206.0 million in portfolio advisory and transaction fees in 2025 through its Global Capital Markets strategy. In 2025, Carlyle deployed $54.5 billion across the platform, including 39 CLOs priced in the liquid credit business, and realized proceeds of $34.1 billion for carry fund investors. Carlyle AlpInvest, operating through AlpInvest, manages $45.7 billion in secondary and portfolio finance investments, $24.1 billion in co-investments, and $25.0 billion in private equity fund investments. Global Private Equity realized $18.2 billion and deployed $10.4 billion in 2025, with final closes in CRP X (U.S. real estate) and CAP VI (Asia buyout). Carlyle returned approximately $0.9 billion to shareholders through $505 million in dividends and $400 million in share repurchases.
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The most specific named counterparty concentration is Carlyle's advisory relationship with Fortitude Re: $80.4 billion in AUM at December 31, 2025 is tied to strategic advisory services agreements with Fortitude and certain reinsurance counterparties, a balance that has grown over 50% since the Fortitude agreement was signed in April 2022. An additional $24.6 billion of capital from Fortitude and its reinsurance counterparties has been committed to various Carlyle strategies. If Fortitude were to reduce its engagement, the resulting fee impact could be material to Global Credit's revenue profile.
See also: Financial Services · Asset Management
From The Carlyle Group Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — The Carlyle Group Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CG Oncology stock maintained at Buy by H.C. Wainwright on trial data - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS Carlyle Group Inc (CG) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Earnings Flash (CG) Carlyle Group Posts Q2 Revenue $1.12B, vs. FactSet Est of $923.5M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Carlyle Group (CG) to Release Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS UBS reiterates CG Oncology stock Buy rating on trial data - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -32.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $40.57, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $38.09. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $46.23 (+14.0% upside). Prior stop was $38.09. Stop-loss: $38.09.
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.0; Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
The Carlyle Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.8 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover CG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $51.
What does The Carlyle Group Inc. do?Carlyle Group manages $477 billion in assets under management across three segments — Global Private Equity ($164...
Carlyle Group manages $477 billion in assets under management across three segments — Global Private Equity ($164 billion), Global Credit ($211 billion), and Carlyle AlpInvest ($102 billion) — from 27 offices across four continents. Revenue is earned through management fees on fee-earning AUM and performance allocations from carry funds, with $53.7 billion in inflows and $34.1 billion in proceeds returned to investors in 2025.