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OTFBlue Owl Technology Finance CorHold6.6·$10.81-3.00%
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Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor (OTF) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum.

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is an externally managed BDC focused on senior secured and subordinated loans and equity investments in enterprise software and technology companies. As of December 31, 2025, OTF had $14.3B in investments across 199 portfolio companies, 76.8%... Read more

$10.81+9.0% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#4 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield8.73%
IncomeYield12.56%Payout145.83%at-risk
Stop $10.17Target $11.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$13.56+25.4%9 analysts
$11.79our TP
$10.81price
$13.56mean
$16

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.0%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn32.8%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth78.3%
Beta
Dividend12.56%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.48Resistance $11.60

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OTF stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $11.79 (+9.1%), stop $10.17 (−6.3%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OTF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.79 (+9.0% upside). Target $11.79 (+9.1%), stop $10.17 (−6.3%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $10.17.

What are the risks of investing in OTF?

Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is OTF overvalued or undervalued?

Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OTF?

14 analysts cover OTF with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor do?Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is an externally managed BDC focused on senior secured and subordinated loans and...

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is an externally managed BDC focused on senior secured and subordinated loans and equity investments in enterprise software and technology companies. As of December 31, 2025, OTF had $14.3B in investments across 199 portfolio companies, 76.8% first lien senior secured, with 96.2% floating-rate debt; listed on NYSE as OTF in June 2025.

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