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Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $13.60. BUY gates pass at $14.21, but concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%) and value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-19.4% YoY), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.04% of cap) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $13.60 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.9 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty... Read more

$14.21+6.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#19 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Entry $13.60(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $13.02Target $14.39(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1

Wait for pullback to $13.60. BUY gates pass at $14.21, but concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%) and value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-19.4% YoY), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.04% of cap) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $13.60 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-19.4% YoY), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.04% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)12.7
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn74.8%
ROE26.6%
Rev Growth-11.6%
Beta0.17
Dividend8.38%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.28bullish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommodityoil and condensate52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 52% of our 2025 oil and natural gas revenues were derived from oil and condensate sales'
  • MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas and natural gas liquids48%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 48% of our 2025 oil and natural gas revenues were derived from natural gas and natural gas liquids sales'
  • LOWGeographicShelby Trough
    10-K Item 1A: 'we generated 13% of our royalty revenues and 14% of our working interest revenues from three operators in the Shelby Trough area'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02LOW
    On February 4, 2026, the Board of Black Stone Minerals GP appointed Anne Hamman to the Board and Audit Committee, effective immediately. Standard non-employee director compensation. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.3
Value Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
9.3
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.38Resistance $14.68

Price Targets

$13
$14
$14
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BSM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $13.60. BUY gates pass at $14.21, but concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%) and value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-19.4% YoY), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.04% of cap) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $13.60 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $14.39 (+1.3%), stop $13.02 (−9.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.39 (+6.4% upside). Target $14.39 (+1.3%), stop $13.02 (−9.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $13.02.

What are the risks of investing in BSM?

Concentration risk — Commodity: oil and condensate (52.0%); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-19.4% YoY), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.04% of cap).

Is BSM overvalued or undervalued?

Black Stone Minerals, L.P. trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BSM?

8 analysts cover BSM with a consensus score of 3.6/5.

What does Black Stone Minerals, L.P. do?Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It...

Black Stone Minerals, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages oil and natural gas mineral interests. It owns mineral interests in approximately 16.9 million gross acres, nonparticipating royalty interests in 1.8 million gross acres, and overriding royalty interests in 1.6 million gross acres located in 41 states in the United States. The company was founded in 1876 and is based in Houston, Texas.

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