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Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Wait for pullback to $95.10. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $95.60. Engine's entry $95.10 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas; Negative momentum.

Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production, with operations in the Haynesville (Louisiana/Texas), Northeast Appalachia (Pennsylvania), and Southwest Appalachia (West Virginia/Ohio) shales. Natural gas = 2,409 Bcf of 2,622... Read more

$95.60+26.1% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#3 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.41%
IncomeYield3.34%(5y avg 4.34%)Payout23.74%sustainable
Entry $95.10(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $89.93Target $119.11(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.7:1
Analyst target$132.35+38.4%26 analysts
$119.11our TP
$95.60price
$132.35mean
$165

Wait for pullback to $95.10. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $95.60. Engine's entry $95.10 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 2.9 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (2.9) - hard block. Wait for improvement. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.1
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$22.9B
EV/EBITDA3.5
Profit Mgn24.9%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth41.0%
Beta0.35
Dividend3.34%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV81%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditynatural gas
    10-K Item 1: 'Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S., based on net daily production'
  • LOWCustomerone purchaser11%
    10-K Item 1: 'we had sales to one purchaser that accounted for 11% of our total revenues (before the effects of hedging).'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Marcel Teunissen appointed as EVP and CFO of Expand Energy effective April 6, 2026. Previously served as CFO at Parkland Corporation. Annual salary $550,000 with 100% bonus target. Prior CFO not named in filing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOW
    John D. Gass notified Expand Energy he will not stand for re-election to the Board and will retire at conclusion of the 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.1
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $93.19Resistance $102.35

Price Targets

$90
$95
$119
A.Upside+24.6%
A.R:R4.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)6.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %2.5%
Max %5%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 2.9 < 4.5 minimum
! 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (2.9) - hard block
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $95.10. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $95.60. Engine's entry $95.10 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 2.9 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (2.9) - hard block. Wait for improvement. Target $119.11 (+24.6%), stop $89.93 (−6.3%), Setup A.R:R 6.1:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $119.11 (+26.1% upside). Target $119.11 (+24.6%), stop $89.93 (−6.3%), Setup A.R:R 6.1:1. Stop-loss: $89.93.

What are the risks of investing in EXE?

Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is EXE overvalued or undervalued?

Expand Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.1 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about EXE?

31 analysts cover EXE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $132.

What does Expand Energy Corporation do?Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production, with operations in...

Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production, with operations in the Haynesville (Louisiana/Texas), Northeast Appalachia (Pennsylvania), and Southwest Appalachia (West Virginia/Ohio) shales. Natural gas = 2,409 Bcf of 2,622 Bcfe total 2025 production; one purchaser = 11% of revenues.

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