BLMN screens as cheap with excellent cash conversion and a perfect earnings beat streak, but its quality score sits below the engine's floor and the stock has already reached its valuation target with a negative modeled asymmetry.
Thesis pillars
- Excellent Cash Conversion Despite No Moat→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Valuation Cheap Peg→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.99: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality.
Bloomin' Brands operates four casual dining concepts — Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar — with 967 company-owned and 493 franchised restaurants across 46 states, Guam, and 12 countries as of December 28,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.99: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
About Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
Bloomin' Brands operates 1,460 system-wide restaurants across four casual dining concepts — Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar — spanning 46 U.S. states, Guam, and 12 countries as of December 28, 2025. Of these, 967 are company-owned and 493 franchised, with international operations concentrated in Brazil and South Korea following the December 2024 sale of majority ownership in the Brazil business.
Bloomin' Brands earns the large majority of revenue from company-owned restaurant sales, supplemented by franchise royalties ranging from 3.50% to 5.75% of gross sales for U.S. franchisees and 2.75% to 5.00% internationally, plus initial franchise fees of $40,000 domestically. Alcoholic beverage sales represent 11% of consolidated restaurant sales, a lower-margin-sensitive category subject to state and local liquor licensing. On the input side, beef represents the majority of purchased proteins, and the company purchased more than 80% of its beef raw materials from four suppliers during 2025, alongside seafood, pork, poultry, and produce sourced through a mix of global, regional, and local suppliers. The company operates in the highly fragmented casual dining segment, competing against other full-service chains as well as fast-casual and delivery alternatives, and is currently executing a turnaround strategy centered on remodeling nearly all Outback Steakhouse locations by the end of 2028.
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Bloomin' Brands carries concentrated input-cost exposure in its highest-volume protein: the 10-K states the company expects to continue purchasing a substantial amount of beef from a small number of suppliers, with the current four beef suppliers representing a significant portion of the total beef marketplace. That concentration is compounded by an existing franchisee-support obligation — the company's 2023 Resolution Agreement with Out West Restaurant Group, operator of 74 western U.S. Outback Steakhouse locations, provides deferred lender rights and reduced advertising fees through December 2026, with no assurance those royalty payments continue if the agreement lapses.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
From Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Bank of America Securities Maintains Underweight Rating on Bloomin' Brands — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Bloomin Brands, Lowers Price Target to $12.25 — benzinga Oct 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS Bloomin' Brands Reaffirms Commitment to Kids LiveWell Program — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Transcript: Bloomin Brands Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Under the Radar: 3 Unlikely Stocks With 10-Bagger Potential — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierfour beef suppliers80%10-K Item 1A: 'During 2025, we purchased more than 80% of our beef raw materials from four beef suppliers that represent a significant portion of the total beef marketplace.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-07-01Item 5.02MEDIUMJessica Mitory, SVP and Chief Human Resources Officer, resigned effective August 17, 2026. Departure not the result of any disagreement with the Company. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Volatile — 6.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.99: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.75; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $9.29. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $10.27 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $9.29. Stop-loss: $9.29.
Concentration risk — Supplier: four beef suppliers (80.0%); Target reached (2.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.3 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover BLMN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Bloomin' Brands, Inc. do?Bloomin' Brands operates four casual dining concepts — Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill,...
Bloomin' Brands operates four casual dining concepts — Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar — with 967 company-owned and 493 franchised restaurants across 46 states, Guam, and 12 countries as of December 28, 2025. The company earns revenue from company-owned restaurant sales plus franchise royalties of 3.50%-5.75% of gross sales domestically, employing approximately 64,000 team members. More than 80% of the company's beef is purchased from just four suppliers.