Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.28
- ▸Attractively valued
BLMN · Why this verdict
Why Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company shows excellent cash conversion at 1000% of net income in free cash flow terms, even though the engine finds no competitive moat and quality sits below the 4.0 floor at 3.2. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should remain strong (FCF/NI above 200%) as long as the underlying business model holds over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1000% FCF/NI ratio driven off a very thin net income base can be a statistical artifact of depreciation or working-capital timing rather than a durable structural advantage. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in all of the last 4 quarters with a 28.5% average surprise, which the engine flags as a perfect beat streak. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent beats against low expectations for a mature restaurant chain can reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamental strength. | ||
The stock screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.30. Valuation breakdown | The value score should remain above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap multiple in a restaurant chain with no competitive moat and below-floor quality could reflect the market correctly pricing in structural competitive risk rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving a -13.9% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -0.93. Engine gate (failed) | The upside estimate should turn positive and the asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap PEG of 0.30 combined with a perfect earnings beat streak could still support upside beyond what the currently negative modeled asymmetry ratio implies. | ||
The engine attributes the stock's edge to its size, noting the $0.7 billion market cap sits below the threshold typically required for institutional participation. Edge rationale | As market capitalization grows toward or beyond the institutional-reach threshold, the constraint-based edge should compress over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRemaining below institutional reach for an extended period could reflect structurally limited investor interest rather than an exploitable structural mispricing. | ||
The company shows excellent cash conversion at 1000% of net income in free cash flow terms, even though the engine finds no competitive moat and quality sits below the 4.0 floor at 3.2.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should remain strong (FCF/NI above 200%) as long as the underlying business model holds over the next 12 months.
CounterA 1000% FCF/NI ratio driven off a very thin net income base can be a statistical artifact of depreciation or working-capital timing rather than a durable structural advantage.
The company has beaten earnings in all of the last 4 quarters with a 28.5% average surprise, which the engine flags as a perfect beat streak.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterConsistent beats against low expectations for a mature restaurant chain can reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamental strength.
The stock screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.30.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should remain above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap multiple in a restaurant chain with no competitive moat and below-floor quality could reflect the market correctly pricing in structural competitive risk rather than a genuine mispricing.
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving a -13.9% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -0.93.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The upside estimate should turn positive and the asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap PEG of 0.30 combined with a perfect earnings beat streak could still support upside beyond what the currently negative modeled asymmetry ratio implies.
The engine attributes the stock's edge to its size, noting the $0.7 billion market cap sits below the threshold typically required for institutional participation.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- As market capitalization grows toward or beyond the institutional-reach threshold, the constraint-based edge should compress over the next 12 months.
CounterRemaining below institutional reach for an extended period could reflect structurally limited investor interest rather than an exploitable structural mispricing.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BLMN screens as cheap with excellent cash conversion and a perfect earnings beat streak, but its quality score sits below the engine's floor and the stock has already reached its valuation target with a negative modeled asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 1.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 8.0 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 6.9%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.27
Upside
-3.6%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Insider at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Value at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.4, Momentum at 3.1, and Quality at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Cheap Peg
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.2, indicating the valuation discount has closed.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion Despite No Moat
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100% from the current 1000%.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the current 4-quarter streak.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 from the current -0.93.
- P5Small Cap Institutional Constraint
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $3 billion from the current $0.7 billion.