Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
- ▸Attractively valued
BLMN · Why this verdict
Why Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BLMN screens as cheap with excellent cash conversion and a perfect earnings beat streak, but its quality score sits below the engine's floor and the stock has already reached its valuation target with a negative modeled asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company shows excellent cash conversion at 1000% of net income in free cash flow terms, even though the engine finds no competitive moat and quality sits below the 4.0 floor at 3.2. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should remain strong (FCF/NI above 200%) as long as the underlying business model holds over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1000% FCF/NI ratio driven off a very thin net income base can be a statistical artifact of depreciation or working-capital timing rather than a durable structural advantage. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in all of the last 4 quarters with a 28.5% average surprise, which the engine flags as a perfect beat streak. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent beats against low expectations for a mature restaurant chain can reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamental strength. | ||
The stock screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.30. Valuation breakdown | The value score should remain above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap multiple in a restaurant chain with no competitive moat and below-floor quality could reflect the market correctly pricing in structural competitive risk rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving a -13.9% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -0.93. Engine gate (failed) | The upside estimate should turn positive and the asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap PEG of 0.30 combined with a perfect earnings beat streak could still support upside beyond what the currently negative modeled asymmetry ratio implies. | ||
The engine attributes the stock's edge to its size, noting the $0.7 billion market cap sits below the threshold typically required for institutional participation. Edge rationale | As market capitalization grows toward or beyond the institutional-reach threshold, the constraint-based edge should compress over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRemaining below institutional reach for an extended period could reflect structurally limited investor interest rather than an exploitable structural mispricing. | ||
The company shows excellent cash conversion at 1000% of net income in free cash flow terms, even though the engine finds no competitive moat and quality sits below the 4.0 floor at 3.2.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should remain strong (FCF/NI above 200%) as long as the underlying business model holds over the next 12 months.
CounterA 1000% FCF/NI ratio driven off a very thin net income base can be a statistical artifact of depreciation or working-capital timing rather than a durable structural advantage.
The company has beaten earnings in all of the last 4 quarters with a 28.5% average surprise, which the engine flags as a perfect beat streak.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterConsistent beats against low expectations for a mature restaurant chain can reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamental strength.
The stock screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.30.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should remain above 6.0 as the valuation discount persists over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap multiple in a restaurant chain with no competitive moat and below-floor quality could reflect the market correctly pricing in structural competitive risk rather than a genuine mispricing.
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving a -13.9% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -0.93.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The upside estimate should turn positive and the asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap PEG of 0.30 combined with a perfect earnings beat streak could still support upside beyond what the currently negative modeled asymmetry ratio implies.
The engine attributes the stock's edge to its size, noting the $0.7 billion market cap sits below the threshold typically required for institutional participation.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- As market capitalization grows toward or beyond the institutional-reach threshold, the constraint-based edge should compress over the next 12 months.
CounterRemaining below institutional reach for an extended period could reflect structurally limited investor interest rather than an exploitable structural mispricing.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 1.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 999% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.7 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 0.6 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 5.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:75d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.02
Upside
-15.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 7.2 and asymmetric R:R of -1.02.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.2, Catalyst at 7.2, and Insider at 5.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.5, Quality at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Cheap Peg
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.2, indicating the valuation discount has closed.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion Despite No Moat
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100% from the current 1000%.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the current 4-quarter streak.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 from the current -0.93.
- P5Small Cap Institutional Constraint
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $3 billion from the current $0.7 billion.