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HDLSUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Sell5.6·$9.90
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Super Hi International screens cheap and cash-generative even after a sharp technical breakdown, but a confirmed downtrend and back-to-back earnings misses argue for waiting on a repair rather than chasing the favorable headline risk/reward.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Post Selloff Valuation→Stable
  • Strong Cash Conversion→Stable
  • Confirmed Technical Breakdown↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING (HDL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery business in Asia, North America, Europe, Oceania, and internationally. It owns and operates Haidilao restaurants. The company also offers food delivery services;... Read more

$9.90+51.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#10 of 30 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.52%
Stop $9.45Analyst target $14.96(−15% haircut)A.R:R 6.5:1
Analyst consensus$17.60+77.8%3 analysts
$14.96Analyst target
$9.90price
$17.60mean
$21

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Dec 2, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 51%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)99.0
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$582M
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn1.2%
ROE2.6%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta0.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 6.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
22 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.74Resistance $11.90

Price Targets

$9
$15
A.Upside+51.1%
A.R:R6.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-02 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HDL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $9.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $9.45. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the HDL stock price target?

Analyst target: $14.96 (+51.1% upside). Prior stop was $9.45. Stop-loss: $9.45.

What are the risks of investing in HDL?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is HDL overvalued or undervalued?

SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING trades at a P/E of 99.0 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HDL?

11 analysts cover HDL with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $18.

What does SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING do?Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery...

Super Hi International Holding Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the restaurant operation and delivery business in Asia, North America, Europe, Oceania, and internationally. It owns and operates Haidilao restaurants. The company also offers food delivery services; and sells hot pot condiment products and food under the Haidilao brand and secondary brands to local guests and retailers. The company was incorporated in 2022 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · WING (Wingstop Inc.) · LOCO (El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.) · NATH (Nathan's Famous, Inc.) · JMKE (Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.)
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