A forward P/E of 10.0 times, PEG of 0.33, and average earnings surprise of 67% above consensus describe a deeply discounted, operationally capable business — but a confirmed death-cross technical breakdown, a serious recent corporate filing, and 15% short interest collectively block the path to an actionable entry until the technical and corporate overhangs resolve.
Thesis pillars
- Extraordinary Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Deep Valuation Discount↑Improving
- Exceptional Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 20, 2026
BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Software - Application
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
BILL Holdings, based in San Jose, California, runs a cloud finance platform for small and midsize businesses covering accounts payable, accounts receivable, and spend and expense management. About 479,300 businesses used it as of June 30, 2026, processing approximately $371.3... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About BILL Holdings, Inc.
About BILL Holdings, Inc.
BILL Holdings processed approximately $371.3 billion in total payment volume during fiscal 2026 for roughly 479,300 businesses, and 9.2 million network members have paid or received funds electronically on its platform as of June 30, 2026. The San Jose, California company states that its payment volume represents over 1% of U.S. gross domestic product. Its products span accounts payable automation, accounts receivable, and BILL Spend and Expense, which provides charge cards, budgets and payment controls.
BILL earns revenue from software and payment services sold mainly to small and midsize businesses. The 10-K describes ad valorem products such as BILL Divvy Cards, virtual cards, instant transfer and international payment offerings, which grow with usage rather than subscriptions alone. Distribution runs through direct sales and indirect channels, including accounting firms, financial institution partners, Embed 2.0 partners and other software integrations. The Embed 2.0 initiative added partnerships with Paychex, Oracle NetSuite and Acumatica, which embed BILL capabilities in third-party platforms. The platform integrates with accounting software including Oracle NetSuite, Sage Intacct and QuickBooks Desktop, plus banks, card issuers and payment processors. In fiscal 2026 the company launched BILL AI, including its first suite of AI agents for W-9 filings, reconciliations and invoice coding, and recently introduced BILL Travel. A proprietary risk engine trained on millions of business-to-business ACH, check, card and wire transactions supports management of the company's own risk exposure.
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SMB exposure is the central lens. The 10-K states that a significant portion of revenue comes from small and medium-sized businesses, which may have fewer financial resources to weather an economic downturn, and notes that the company has observed SMBs tightening budgets and selecting lower-cost payment methods, which adversely affected operating results. Recent reductions in U.S. federal government spending, including at the U.S. Small Business Administration, may affect the SMBs the company serves. Growth in the number of businesses using the platform has been and may continue to be affected by macroeconomic conditions, and instability in the banking system could weigh on results.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From BILL Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — BILL Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS This Bill Gates Stock Just Hit a New 52-Week High and 1 Signal Says There’s More Room to Run - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Congress’s stock trading bill doesn’t solve the real problem - The Hill — The Hill negative
- NEWS Congress’s stock trading bill doesn’t solve the real problem - thehill.com — thehill.com negative
- NEWS Wolfe Research Maintains BILL Holdings(BILL.US) With Buy Rating, Raises Target Price to $60 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Wolfe Research Maintains BILL Holdings(BILL.US) With Buy Rating, Raises Target Price to $60 - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomersmall and medium-sized businesses10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our revenue comes from small and medium-sized businesses, which may have fewer financial resources to weather an economic downturn'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $51.34 (+6.9%), stop $44.66 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $51.34 (+6.9% upside). Analyst target $51.34 (+6.9%), stop $44.66 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $44.66.
Thin upside margin: 6.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
BILL Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
29 analysts cover BILL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $57.
What does BILL Holdings, Inc. do?BILL Holdings, based in San Jose, California, runs a cloud finance platform for small and midsize businesses covering...
BILL Holdings, based in San Jose, California, runs a cloud finance platform for small and midsize businesses covering accounts payable, accounts receivable, and spend and expense management. About 479,300 businesses used it as of June 30, 2026, processing approximately $371.3 billion of total payment volume in fiscal 2026, with 9.2 million network members. It sells directly and through accounting firms, financial institutions and Embed 2.0 partners.