A forward P/E of 10.0 times, PEG of 0.33, and average earnings surprise of 67% above consensus describe a deeply discounted, operationally capable business — but a confirmed death-cross technical breakdown, a serious recent corporate filing, and 15% short interest collectively block the path to an actionable entry until the technical and corporate overhangs resolve.
Thesis pillars
- Extraordinary Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Deep Valuation Discount↓Deteriorating
- Exceptional Earnings Execution↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Application
Wait for pullback to $39.32. At $45.16 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $39.32 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.2%; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.1%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.03% of cap).
BILL Holdings provides a financial operations platform for small and midsize businesses, automating accounts payable, accounts receivable, and spend management with approximately 493,800 businesses and 8.3 million network members as of June 30, 2025. Revenue comes from... Read more
Wait for pullback to $39.32. At $45.16 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $39.32 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.2%; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.1%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.03% of cap). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.
About BILL Holdings, Inc.
About BILL Holdings, Inc.
BILL processed $330 billion in total payment volume during fiscal year 2025, serving approximately 493,800 businesses and connecting 8.3 million network members as of June 30, 2025. The company generated net income of $23.8 million in fiscal 2025, reversing net losses of $28.9 million in fiscal 2024 and $223.7 million in fiscal 2023. BILL is headquartered in San Jose, California and holds money transmitter licenses in all required U.S. jurisdictions and Canada.
BILL generates revenue through subscription fees for platform access, transaction fees that include ad valorem charges on instant transfer, virtual card, and international payment products, and interchange income from BILL Divvy Cards issued via Issuing Bank partners on the Mastercard and Visa networks. The platform reaches SMBs through direct channels, accounting firms offering client advisory services, and financial institutions operating white-label integrations within business banking portals. Fraud and credit loss rates on AP/AR payments were approximately 0.01% of total payment volume in fiscal 2025, and card-related fraud and credit loss ran approximately 0.23% of card payment volume. The company competes against legacy manual processes and software providers entering adjacent product categories including payables, receivables, and expense management.
Show full overview
For a substantial majority of BILL Divvy Card credit extensions, the company purchases participation interests in receivables from Issuing Banks and bears the entire credit risk if a spending business fails to pay its card balance. The 10-K acknowledges that non-payment rates may rise during economic downturns, and the funding model for the Divvy Card program relies on warehouse facilities that could be modified or terminated if portfolio performance deteriorates, potentially restricting the company's ability to grow this product line. The company does not file UCC liens on Divvy Card balances, significantly limiting collection from spending businesses in bankruptcy.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From BILL Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — BILL Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS This Bill Gates Stock Just Hit a New 52-Week High and 1 Signal Says There’s More Room to Run - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Bill Ackman Says These 3 Stocks Could Be Like Buying Berkshire Hathaway in 2000 - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool positive
- NEWS Bill Ackman Says These 3 Stocks Could Be Like Buying Berkshire Hathaway in 2000 - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Big Tech's $2.7 trillion AI bill comes due: Chart of the Day - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Kean backs congressional stock trading limits as House passes bill - New Jersey Globe — New Jersey Globe neutral
Generated 2026-07-30T22:23:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02MEDIUMCTO Ken Moss and EVP/GM Payments Mary Kay Bowman departing effective June 30, 2026; each to serve in advisory capacity through June 30, 2027. COO John Rettig transitions to Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer effective immediately.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-07Item 2.05MEDIUMWorkforce reduction of up to 30% announced May 7, 2026. Estimated charges $30-60 million, primarily cash severance and stock-based compensation. Majority of charges expected in fiscal Q4 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOWCFO Rohini Jain additionally appointed as principal accounting officer effective March 11, 2026. No additional compensation. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $39.32. At $45.16 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $39.32 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.2%; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.1%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.03% of cap). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $49.11 (+8.7%), stop $34.89 (−29.4%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $49.11 (+8.2% upside). Target $49.11 (+8.7%), stop $34.89 (−29.4%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $34.89.
Thin upside margin: 8.2%; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.1%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.03% of cap).
BILL Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
30 analysts cover BILL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $55.
What does BILL Holdings, Inc. do?BILL Holdings provides a financial operations platform for small and midsize businesses, automating accounts payable,...
BILL Holdings provides a financial operations platform for small and midsize businesses, automating accounts payable, accounts receivable, and spend management with approximately 493,800 businesses and 8.3 million network members as of June 30, 2025. Revenue comes from subscription fees, transaction fees on $330 billion in annual payment volume, and interchange income from the BILL Divvy Card program. The company achieved net income of $23.8 million in fiscal 2025.