Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the YMM stock price target?

Entry $8.71, take-profit $10.84 (+26.5% upside). Target $10.84 (+25.8%), stop $8.08 (−6.7%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1.

Q: Is YMM overvalued or undervalued?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Overall verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

Q: What do analysts say about YMM?

19 analysts cover YMM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate ConfidenceUpdated 4 min ago (May 15, 2026, 6:06 PM ET)

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $8.71 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

$8.62+26.5% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#4 of 98 Software - Application

QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield34.01%

IncomeYield2.01%Payout32.86%sustainable

Entry $8.71(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $8.08Target $10.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1

Analyst target$12.46+44.5%14 analysts

$10.84our TP

$8.62price

$12.46mean

$17

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $8.71 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Positive news sentiment (+0.67)

Risks

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.5

P/E (Fwd)10.6

Mkt Cap$9.4B

EV/EBITDA40.1

Profit Mgn35.3%

ROE11.2%

Rev Growth0.6%

Beta0.29

Dividend2.01%

Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

Max Pain$3-71.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.015%1.20

Quality7.015%1.05

Growth6.315%0.94

Momentum5.310%0.53

Sentiment7.610%0.76

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank6.510%0.65

Technical Setup5.35%0.27

Risk Profile7.25%0.36

Catalyst5.75%0.29

Overall (Σ contributions)6.54

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate

RSI

51 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.30Resistance $9.35

Price Targets

$11

A.Upside+25.8%

A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction

Suggested %0.8%

Max %1.5%

RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-21 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is YMM stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $8.71 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $10.84 (+25.8%), stop $8.08 (−6.7%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YMM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.84 (+26.5% upside). Target $10.84 (+25.8%), stop $8.08 (−6.7%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1. Stop-loss: $8.08.

What are the risks of investing in YMM?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is YMM overvalued or undervalued?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about YMM?

19 analysts cover YMM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. do?Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects...

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.