Value
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
- ▸Attractively valued
BILL · Why this verdict
Why BILL Holdings (BILL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 24 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 55%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,204,663 (0.034% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 2.7 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.5 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 17%
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Above max pain $28
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.34
Upside
+39.9%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.7, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.