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ARAntero Resources CorporationSell6.7·$34.36-3.27%
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Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and... Read more

$34.36+31.9% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#5 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.77%
Stop $33.24Target $45.32(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.1:1
Analyst target$50.35+46.5%20 analysts
$45.32our TP
$34.36price
$50.35mean
$57

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$11.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn17.1%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth34.3%
Beta0.32
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.6
Volume
1.7
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 5.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.27Resistance $39.17

Price Targets

$33
$45
A.Upside+31.9%
A.R:R5.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $34.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $33.24. Score 6.7/10, high confidence.

What is the AR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.32 (+31.9% upside). Prior stop was $33.24. Stop-loss: $33.24.

What are the risks of investing in AR?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is AR overvalued or undervalued?

Antero Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AR?

27 analysts cover AR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Antero Resources Corporation do?Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production,...

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 537,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 168,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. Its gathering and compression systems also comprise 731 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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