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ARAntero Resources CorporationSell7.1·$35.32+0.51%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A wide economic moat and 34% revenue growth at a forward multiple of 7.3x create a compelling value opportunity, but three consecutive earnings misses — averaging a roughly 24% shortfall in those quarters — and severely depressed momentum mean the thesis requires execution proof before the full risk/reward can be captured.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Wide MoatDeteriorating
  • Strong Growth Rule Of 40Stable
  • Earnings Miss Track RecordImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $35.32. Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and... Read more

$35.32+23.0% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#6 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.83%
Stop $33.14Target $43.43(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$48.25+36.6%20 analysts
$43.43our TP
$35.32price
$48.25mean
$59

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $35.32. Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$10.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn17.1%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth34.3%
Beta0.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$40+13.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.0
Support Resistance
2.0
52w Position
5.4
Gap
6.0
GatesMomentum 6.8>=5.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.58Resistance $35.99

Price Targets

$33
$43
A.Upside+23.0%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $35.32. Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $33.14. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.43 (+23.0% upside). Prior stop was $33.14. Stop-loss: $33.14.

What are the risks of investing in AR?

Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is AR overvalued or undervalued?

Antero Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AR?

28 analysts cover AR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Antero Resources Corporation do?Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production,...

Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 537,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 168,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. Its gathering and compression systems also comprise 731 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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