Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.66
- ▸Attractively valued
AR · Why this verdict
Why Antero Resources (AR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 9.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.5 |
| Current ratio | 1.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.7 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,387,998 (0.085% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
4.55
Upside
+27.6%
Downside
6.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Insider at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Catalyst at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.