APA Corporation combines an exceptional earnings beat track record averaging roughly 40% positive surprise over four consecutive quarters with a forward price-to-earnings of 8.1x, 18% net margins, and about 12% upside to the take-profit level at a risk/reward of roughly 2.9-to-1 — offset by a 12% revenue decline, momentum that remains below the threshold for a clean setup, and a 10% short interest reflecting residual skepticism about earnings sustainability.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margins And Balance Sheet→Stable
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Attractive Energy Sector Valuation↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
APA Corporation (APA) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $44.84. Price sits above the model's entry target of $44.84; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away).
APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of 2025 production), Egypt (31%), and the North Sea (7%), plus development activity in Suriname targeting first oil in 2028. Production revenue totaled $7.2... Read more
Wait for pullback to $44.84. Price sits above the model's entry target of $44.84; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About APA Corporation
About APA Corporation
APA Corporation produced 169.5 MMboe in 2025, with the U.S. Permian Basin contributing 62% of total volumes and 53% of oil and gas revenues, Egypt's Western Desert contributing 31% of volumes, and North Sea assets adding 7%, generating $7.2 billion in production revenue. Year-end 2025 proved reserves totaled 1,056 MMboe, with 74% attributed to U.S. assets. APA completed the $4.5 billion Callon acquisition on April 1, 2024, adding approximately 120,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin and 25,000 net acres in the Midland Basin.
North American revenue derives from Permian Basin oil priced at WTI-linked indices, natural gas sold at liquid index points to utilities, marketers, and midstream companies, and NGLs priced on Gulf Coast supply conditions. Long-term delivery commitments require an average of 152 Bcf of natural gas per year from 2026 through 2029 and 49 Bcf per year from 2030 through 2037, plus crude oil commitments averaging 1.8 MMbbls per year from 2026 through 2028, all at market-based pricing. Egypt operations are conducted through a joint venture two-thirds owned by APA and one-third by Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation, with substantially all 2025 Egyptian natural gas sold to EGPC at a minimum of $2.65 per MMBtu. The North Sea segment has been in wind-down since 2023, with new drilling suspended and production expected to cease before 2030 following a determination that new regulatory obligations — including significant U.K. tax levies and infrastructure modernization requirements — made investment uneconomical.
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The Permian Basin is APA's largest single asset concentration: the company holds approximately 406,000 gross acres in the Midland Basin and 217,000 gross acres in the Delaware Basin of West Texas, with operations targeting the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, and Barnett formations. Egypt adds a second material dependency: the 2021 merged concession agreement consolidated 98% of APA's gross Egyptian acreage under one arrangement with a fixed 40% cost recovery limit and a 30% profit-sharing rate, refreshing development lease terms for 20 years and exploration leases for 5 years. Suriname's GranMorgu development — a joint venture with TotalEnergies as 50% operator — committed APA to 12.5% of the first $10 billion in gross capital, with a 220,000 b/d FPSO targeting first oil in 2028.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From APA Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — APA Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS APA Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - marketwatch.com — marketwatch.com negative
- NEWS Diamondback Energy, APA Corporation, SM Energy, Kosmos Energy, and CNX Resources Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Kn — TradingView positive
- NEWS SummitTX Capital L.P. Sells 43,189 Shares of APA Corporation $APA - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS APA (APA) Heads Into Earnings On Softer Analyst Sentiment And An Undervalued Narrative - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS APA Corp (APA) Stock Up 4.3% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 64/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-30T10:27:53Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $44.84. Price sits above the model's entry target of $44.84; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Analyst target $44.10 reached (−14.4%), stop $41.76 (−23.3%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $44.10 reached (−14.4% from $51.51); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $44.10 reached (−14.4%), stop $41.76 (−23.3%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $41.76.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
APA Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
33 analysts cover APA with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $49.
What does APA Corporation do?APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of...
APA Corporation is an independent E&P company with oil and gas operations in the U.S. (primarily Permian Basin, 62% of 2025 production), Egypt (31%), and the North Sea (7%), plus development activity in Suriname targeting first oil in 2028. Production revenue totaled $7.2 billion in 2025 across 169.5 MMboe of total production. The company expects to cease North Sea production before 2030.