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VETVermilion Energy Inc.Sell5.6·$10.47-6.10%
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Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.47: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region of West Central Alberta,... Read more

$10.47+24.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#21 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield15.78%
IncomeYield3.56%(5y avg 13.14%)Payout76.12%
Stop $9.94Target $12.98(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.47: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)17.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA3.4
Profit Mgn-46.7%
ROE-20.7%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta0.50
Dividend3.56%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.40bearish
IV115%elevated
Max Pain$3-76.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Macd
2.4
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.9
Current Ratio
2.5
Moat
5.9
Fcf Quality
7.1
Gross Margin
8.3
Piotroski F
8.9
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 15.8%)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
4.9
Value Rank
9.7
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.25Resistance $13.24

Price Targets

$10
$13
A.Upside+24.0%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Negative free cash flow
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VET stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $10.47: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $9.94. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VET stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.98 (+24.0% upside). Prior stop was $9.94. Stop-loss: $9.94.

What are the risks of investing in VET?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Negative free cash flow.

Is VET overvalued or undervalued?

Vermilion Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VET?

14 analysts cover VET with a consensus score of 3.6/5.

What does Vermilion Energy Inc. do?Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and...

Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region of West Central Alberta, Canada; southwest Bordeaux and Paris Basin in France; the Netherlands; Germany; Ireland; Croatia; Slovakia; Hungary; and Australia. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Related stocks: GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) · DMLP (Dorchester Minerals, L.P.) · CNX (CNX Resources Corporation) · AR (Antero Resources Corporation) · BKV (BKV Corporation)
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