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BKVBKV CorporationHold6.5·$25.06+2.08%
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BKV Corporation (BKV) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Barnett Shale and midstream properties; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single natural gas marketing third party.

BKV Corporation produces natural gas and NGLs primarily from the Barnett Shale (approximately 544,000 net acres) and northeastern Pennsylvania, averaging 835.5 MMcfe/d of net daily production in 2025 from 5,921 Bcfe of proved reserves. Revenue comes from natural gas and NGL... Read more

$25.06+22.1% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#11 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-19.07%
Stop $23.39Target $30.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$35.18+40.4%11 analysts
$30.61our TP
$25.06price
$35.18mean
$39

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Barnett Shale and midstream properties; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single natural gas marketing third party. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Barnett Shale and midstream properties
Concentration risk — Counterparty: single natural gas marketing third party
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA6.4
Profit Mgn29.9%
ROE16.6%
Rev Growth38.9%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV97%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicBarnett Shale and midstream properties
    10-K Item 1A: 'the geographical concentration of substantially all of our oil and gas and midstream properties'
  • HIGHcounterpartysingle natural gas marketing third party
    10-K Item 1A: 'our reliance on a single third party for all of our natural gas marketing'
  • HIGHcounterpartyONEOK95%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 95% of our natural gas is gathered and transported by ONEOK'
  • HIGHcounterpartyEnergy Transfer
    10-K Item 1: 'All gas currently flows to Energy Transfer, where BKV is under an acreage dedication for its downstream takeaway'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.2
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.11Resistance $29.76

Price Targets

$23
$31
A.Upside+22.1%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKV stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $25.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Barnett Shale and midstream properties; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single natural gas marketing third party. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.61 (+22.1%), stop $23.39 (−7.1%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.61 (+22.1% upside). Target $30.61 (+22.1%), stop $23.39 (−7.1%), A.R:R 2.9:1. Stop-loss: $23.39.

What are the risks of investing in BKV?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Barnett Shale and midstream properties; Concentration risk — Counterparty: single natural gas marketing third party; Negative momentum.

Is BKV overvalued or undervalued?

BKV Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BKV?

15 analysts cover BKV with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $35.

What does BKV Corporation do?BKV Corporation produces natural gas and NGLs primarily from the Barnett Shale (approximately 544,000 net acres) and...

BKV Corporation produces natural gas and NGLs primarily from the Barnett Shale (approximately 544,000 net acres) and northeastern Pennsylvania, averaging 835.5 MMcfe/d of net daily production in 2025 from 5,921 Bcfe of proved reserves. Revenue comes from natural gas and NGL sales plus power generation through a 50% interest in the Temple Plants (1,499 MW combined) in ERCOT, Texas.

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