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VETVermilion Energy Inc.Sell6.3·$13.23-1.19%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Vermilion Energy trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 16.4x with a 16.7% free cash flow yield despite GAAP losses, but a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.0, three of four recent earnings misses with massive negative surprises, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.60 signal severe near-term financial risk that places this below the minimum quality threshold.

Thesis pillars

  • Fcf Yield Despite Gaap LossStable
  • High Leverage Value Trap SignalsDeteriorating
  • Earnings Miss SeverityImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) Stock Analysis

SellValueGrowthHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $13.23. Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region of West Central Alberta,... Read more

$13.23+1.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#30 of 49 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield43.13%
IncomeYield2.86%(5y avg 13.14%)Payout76.12%
Stop $12.33Target $13.46(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $13.23. Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)16.9
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA3.3
Profit Mgn-24.3%
ROE-18.5%
Rev Growth23.1%
Beta0.50
Dividend2.86%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV70%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.25Resistance $13.73

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VET stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $13.23. Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.33. Score 6.3/10, high confidence.

What is the VET stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.46 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $12.33. Stop-loss: $12.33.

What are the risks of investing in VET?

Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is VET overvalued or undervalued?

Vermilion Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VET?

14 analysts cover VET with a consensus score of 3.6/5.

What does Vermilion Energy Inc. do?Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and...

Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region of West Central Alberta, Canada; southwest Bordeaux and Paris Basin in France; the Netherlands; Germany; Ireland; Croatia; Slovakia; Hungary; and Australia. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Related stocks: MGY (Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation) · SM (SM Energy Company) · SD (SandRidge Energy, Inc.) · DMLP (Dorchester Minerals, L.P.) · VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.)
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