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SLMSLM CorporationSell5.5·$21.93-1.99%
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SLM Corporation (SLM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%).

SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) is the largest private student loan lender, originating $7.4B of Private Education Loans in 2025 and holding a $20.3B portfolio at year-end. Funded primarily via $21.5B in deposits at Sallie Mae Bank; serves 2,100+ higher education institution... Read more

$21.93+14.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#23 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.32%(5y avg 2.01%)Payout14.44%sustainable
Stop $20.41Target $25.07(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$28.82+31.4%11 analysts
$25.07our TP
$21.93price
$28.82mean
$35

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 59%
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.2
P/E (Fwd)6.6
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn44.9%
ROE30.9%
Rev Growth2.5%
Beta0.99
Dividend2.32%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.89neutral
IV95%elevated
Max Pain$28+27.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioPrivate Education Loans71%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71 percent of our total assets, and 83 percent of our total assets excluding cash and cash equivalents, were comprised of Private Education Loans'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioonline deposit funding concentration
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our deposit funding base is primarily concentrated in online deposit products, including high-yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOW
    Peter Graham (CFO) and Kerri Palmer (COO) appointed as Co-Presidents of SLM Corporation effective April 22, 2026. Graham retains CFO title; Palmer becomes Co-President and Head of Financial Services. No departures; compensatory arrangement changes noted.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
4.0
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.01Resistance $23.31

Price Targets

$20
$25
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SLM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50. Prior stop was $20.41. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SLM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.07 (+14.3% upside). Prior stop was $20.41. Stop-loss: $20.41.

What are the risks of investing in SLM?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SLM overvalued or undervalued?

SLM Corporation trades at a P/E of 6.2 (forward 6.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SLM?

15 analysts cover SLM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $29.

What does SLM Corporation do?SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) is the largest private student loan lender, originating $7.4B of Private Education Loans...

SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) is the largest private student loan lender, originating $7.4B of Private Education Loans in 2025 and holding a $20.3B portfolio at year-end. Funded primarily via $21.5B in deposits at Sallie Mae Bank; serves 2,100+ higher education institution partners. As of Dec 31, 2025, Private Education Loans represented 71% of total assets (83% excluding cash).

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