Skip to main content
RKLBRocket Lab CorporationSell4.8·$109.03+6.49%
Open full analysis

Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $109.03: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum.

Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company providing orbital launch services via Electron (75 successful launches, second most frequently launched orbital rocket in 2025), spacecraft components, and full spacecraft solutions. Revenue of $601.8M in 2025 is split between Launch... Read more

$109.03+35.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#39 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-0.34%
Stop $101.67Target $147.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$105.28-3.4%16 analysts
$147.98our TP
$109.03price
$105.28mean
$60
$150

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $109.03: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Rocket Lab Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-13.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-14083.9
Mkt Cap$64.0B
EV/EBITDA-352.0
Profit Mgn-26.9%
ROE-13.5%
Rev Growth63.5%
Beta2.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV107%elevated
Max Pain$88-19.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-5 customers49%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top five customers accounted for approximately 49% of our revenues and our top five backlog customers accounted for approximately 77% of our backlog in the aggregate as of December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government, U.S. prime contractors47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 47%, 33%, and 31%, respectively, of our total annual revenues were derived from contracts with the U.S. government, U.S. prime contractors and its agencies'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-30Item 5.02LOW
    CEO Sir Peter Beck voluntarily reduced annual base salary to $1.00 and cancelled all unvested RSUs (392,155 shares) on March 30, 2026 to focus on long-term shareholder value rather than short-term incentives. No departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -26.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
3.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.5
Cash-burning: FCF -32% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Analyst Target
3.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
8.9
Industry growth leader

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.2
Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $99.61Resistance $151.00

Price Targets

$102
$148
A.Upside+35.7%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RKLB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $109.03: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $101.67. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RKLB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $147.98 (+35.4% upside). Prior stop was $101.67. Stop-loss: $101.67.

What are the risks of investing in RKLB?

Target reached (-13.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is RKLB overvalued or undervalued?

Rocket Lab Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -14083.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RKLB?

27 analysts cover RKLB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $105.

What does Rocket Lab Corporation do?Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company providing orbital launch services via Electron (75 successful launches,...

Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company providing orbital launch services via Electron (75 successful launches, second most frequently launched orbital rocket in 2025), spacecraft components, and full spacecraft solutions. Revenue of $601.8M in 2025 is split between Launch Services and Space Systems; ~47% from U.S. government and prime contractor contracts.

Related stocks: FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.) · HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc.) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.) · HEI-A (Heico Corporation) · HEI (Heico Corporation)
Home Stocks RKLB

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga5h ago
Benzinga8h ago
Benzinga10h agoAnalyst
Benzinga11h agoAnalyst
Benzinga3d ago
Benzinga3d ago
Benzinga3d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga4d ago
Benzinga5d ago
Benzinga5d ago
Benzinga6d ago
Loading more...