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RKLBRocket Lab CorporationSell5.0·$104.38-9.06%
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Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $104.38: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company providing orbital launch services via Electron (75 successful launches, second most frequently launched orbital rocket in 2025), spacecraft components, and full spacecraft solutions. Revenue of $601.8M in 2025 is split between Launch... Read more

$104.38+44.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#36 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-0.34%
Stop $96.62Target $147.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$105.28+0.9%16 analysts
$147.98our TP
$104.38price
$105.28mean
$60
$150

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $104.38: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14

Recent Developments — Rocket Lab Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-7.5% upside)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-14083.9
Mkt Cap$64.0B
EV/EBITDA-352.0
Profit Mgn-26.9%
ROE-13.5%
Rev Growth63.5%
Beta2.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV113%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-5 customers49%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top five customers accounted for approximately 49% of our revenues and our top five backlog customers accounted for approximately 77% of our backlog in the aggregate as of December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government, U.S. prime contractors47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 47%, 33%, and 31%, respectively, of our total annual revenues were derived from contracts with the U.S. government, U.S. prime contractors and its agencies'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-30Item 5.02LOW
    CEO Sir Peter Beck voluntarily reduced annual base salary to $1.00 and cancelled all unvested RSUs (392,155 shares) on March 30, 2026 to focus on long-term shareholder value rather than short-term incentives. No departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -26.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
3.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.5
Cash-burning: FCF -32% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
8.9
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $99.61Resistance $151.00

Price Targets

$97
$148
A.Upside+41.8%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RKLB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $104.38: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $96.62. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RKLB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $147.98 (+44.5% upside). Prior stop was $96.62. Stop-loss: $96.62.

What are the risks of investing in RKLB?

Target reached (-7.5% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is RKLB overvalued or undervalued?

Rocket Lab Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -14083.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RKLB?

27 analysts cover RKLB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $105.

What does Rocket Lab Corporation do?Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company providing orbital launch services via Electron (75 successful launches,...

Rocket Lab is an end-to-end space company providing orbital launch services via Electron (75 successful launches, second most frequently launched orbital rocket in 2025), spacecraft components, and full spacecraft solutions. Revenue of $601.8M in 2025 is split between Launch Services and Space Systems; ~47% from U.S. government and prime contractor contracts.

Related stocks: HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc.) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.) · HEI-A (Heico Corporation) · HEI (Heico Corporation) · FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.)
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