Embraer shows a compelling combination of high growth scores and an attractive valuation — PEG of 0.13, a forward P/E of 16.0 times, and 18.2% upside to the consensus target — but quarterly earnings delivery has alternated between beats and misses with a negative average surprise of roughly -14% over four quarters, free cash flow is negative, and business quality sits below the minimum threshold, making this a setup that warrants monitoring before committing fresh capital.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Negative Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Strong Revenue Earnings Growth Profile→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026
Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $72.11: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $72.11: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Embraer S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS Embraer and Austrian Airlines Sign Component Pool Program Agreement — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Embraer and Air Dolomiti Sign Component Pool Program Agreement — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS TransMedics Selects Gogo Galileo for Embraer Phenom 300E Fleet — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Lula Beats Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil Election, Keeping Latin America's Biggest Economy At Odds With Trump — Brazil ETFs — benzinga Oct 25, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Embraer Reports Record Order Backlog of $35.7 Billion for Q3 2026 — fiscal.ai Oct 23, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $72.11: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $67.57. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $85.26 (+18.2% upside). Prior stop was $67.57. Stop-loss: $67.57.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Embraer S.A. trades at a P/E of 29.2 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover EMBJ with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $95.
What does Embraer S.A. do?Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and...
Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets. The Defense & Security segment develops and produces military aircraft; and is involved in research and development of software and integrated information systems, communications, border monitoring and surveillance, space systems/satellites, and aircraft modernization services and services support, as well as command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. The Executive Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells executive jets. The Service & Support segment provides field and technical support, flight operations solutions, aircraft modification, materials management, maintenance solutions, and training programs. The Other segment engages in the supply of structural parts and hydraulic systems; production of agricultural crop-spraying aircraft; development and certification of eVTOLs; creation of a maintenance and service network, and air traffic control system for eVTOLs; development and manufacture of electrical propulsion systems; cybersecurity; and software and technical products. Additionally, the company is involved in leasing of used aircraft; pilot, mechanic, and crew training; engineering services; retail trade, maintenance, and repair of computer products; information technology consulting, data processing, application service providers, and internet hosting; and fabrication of aircraft interiors. The company was formerly known as Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. and changed its name to Embraer S.A. in November 2010. Embraer S.A. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.