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FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.Sell6.2·$263.61+8.95%
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FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. At $263.61, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us", "our", "FTAI", "FTAI Aviation" or "the Company" refer to us and our consolidated subsidiaries.

$263.61+15.8% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.29%
IncomeYield0.62%(5y avg 3.18%)Payout26.89%sustainable
Stop $245.00Target $305.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$350.60+33.0%10 analysts
$305.02our TP
$263.61price
$350.60mean
$408

Sell if holding. At $263.61, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)48.3
P/E (Fwd)21.0
Mkt Cap$24.8B
EV/EBITDA27.3
Profit Mgn18.9%
ROE233.3%
Rev Growth65.5%
Beta1.52
Dividend0.62%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$115-56.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
0.9
Gap
3.0
52w Position
6.3
Extreme gap up (5.6%) - may pull back

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
2.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 62.0%
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $214.53Resistance $265.06

Price Targets

$245
$305
A.Upside+15.7%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $263.61, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $245.00. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $305.02 (+15.8% upside). Prior stop was $245.00. Stop-loss: $245.00.

What are the risks of investing in FTAI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Elevated risk factors.

Is FTAI overvalued or undervalued?

FTAI Aviation Ltd. trades at a P/E of 48.3 (forward 21.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FTAI?

17 analysts cover FTAI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $351.

What does FTAI Aviation Ltd. do?FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us",...

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us", "our", "FTAI", "FTAI Aviation" or "the Company" refer to us and our consolidated subsidiaries.

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