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FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Wait for pullback to $239.09. At $241.48 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $239.09 (50% gap fill) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us", "our", "FTAI", "FTAI Aviation" or "the Company" refer to us and our consolidated subsidiaries.

$241.48+23.3% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
Entry $239.09(50% gap fill)Stop $222.35Target $294.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1Setup A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$338.90+40.3%10 analysts
$294.84our TP
$241.48price
$338.90mean
$375

Wait for pullback to $239.09. At $241.48 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $239.09 (50% gap fill) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.2x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.6Qual7.6Grw10.0Mom5.4Sent8.0Ins5.0Peer5.5Tech4.2Risk4.06.5OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.90)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 8.0): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.7
P/E (Fwd)20.7
Mkt Cap$25.6B
EV/EBITDA27.9
Profit Mgn18.9%
ROE233.3%
Rev Growth65.5%
Beta1.65
Dividend0.60%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV78%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On March 5, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of FTAI Aviation Ltd. ("FTAI" or the "Company") appointed Nicholas McAleese as the Company's Chief Financial Officer and Michael Hazan as the Company's Chief Accounting Officer, each effective March 6, 2026. Mr.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    The Board of Directors (the "Board") of FTAI Aviation Ltd. ("FTAI" or the "Company") appointed David Moreno as the Company's President and Stacy Kuperus as the Company's principal operating officer, effective February 12, 2026. Each of Mr. Moreno and Ms.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Adoption of the FTAI Aviation Strategic Capital Profit Participation Plan On January 22, 2026, FTAI Aviation Ltd.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $202.84Resistance $278.00

Price Targets

$222
$239
$295
A.Upside+22.1%
A.R:R1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.5%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! R/R 1.2x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTAI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $239.09. At $241.48 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $239.09 (50% gap fill) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 8.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.2x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $294.84 (+22.1%), stop $222.35 (−8.6%), Setup A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $294.84 (+23.3% upside). Target $294.84 (+22.1%), stop $222.35 (−8.6%), Setup A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $222.35.

What are the risks of investing in FTAI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 8.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is FTAI overvalued or undervalued?

FTAI Aviation Ltd. trades at a P/E of 49.7 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FTAI?

17 analysts cover FTAI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $339.

What does FTAI Aviation Ltd. do?FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us",...

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (Nasdaq: FTAI) is a Cayman Islands exempted company. Except as otherwise specified, "we", "us", "our", "FTAI", "FTAI Aviation" or "the Company" refer to us and our consolidated subsidiaries.

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