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RBCRBC Bearings IncorporatedBuy Wait5.8·$561.90+2.11%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

RBC Bearings is a precision bearings manufacturer with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a 4-for-4 earnings beat streak averaging 6.0% positive surprise, and a golden cross breakout pattern, but trading above analyst price targets with -1.5% negative upside at a forward P/E of 37.6x limits the near-term entry case.

Thesis pillars

  • Industrial Segment ConcentrationDeteriorating
  • Perfect Piotroski Breakout AlignmentStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Earnings in 1 day (2026-07-31). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $539.19. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $561.90. Engine's entry $539.19 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Industrial segment (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

RBC Bearings manufactures precision bearings, gearing, and engineered components for Industrial (58% of net sales) and Aerospace & Defense (42% of net sales) markets, operating 65 facilities across 11 countries with 5,816 employees. Revenue flows through OEM program wins and... Read more

$561.90-4.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.46%
Entry $539.19(support + ATR (held))Stop $504.91Target $612.15(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$620.00+10.3%7 analysts
$612.15our TP
$561.90price
$620.00mean
$490
$680

Wait for pullback to $539.19. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $561.90. Engine's entry $539.19 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Industrial segment (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About RBC Bearings Incorporated

About RBC Bearings Incorporated

RBC Bearings carried a $2.3 billion order backlog as of March 28, 2026—more than double the $0.9 billion recorded at March 29, 2025—with $1.1 billion attributable to marine-related programs and $0.6 billion to VACCO programs. The Industrial segment contributed 58% of net sales for the fiscal year ended March 28, 2026, with Aerospace & Defense accounting for the remaining 42%. The company employed 5,816 people across 44 manufacturing facilities in 11 countries, and the top ten customers collectively accounted for approximately 35% of net sales during fiscal 2026, down from 44% in fiscal 2024.

RBC Bearings earns revenue through a mix of OEM program design-ins and aftermarket replacement parts across Industrial and Aerospace & Defense end markets. Industrial customers include Caterpillar, Komatsu, and Halliburton alongside aftermarket distributors such as Motion Industries and Applied Industrial Technologies. In Aerospace & Defense, the company supplies Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Newport News Shipbuilding, and Blue Origin, with many products custom-designed during original aircraft or weapons development—often making RBC Bearings the sole or primary supplier for the product life. Steel, primarily stainless and chrome grades, is the principal raw material; costs are partially recoverable through surcharges on select contracts, though many fixed-price contracts limit pass-through during inflation. Principal competitors include SKF, Timken, and Regal Rexnord.

Show full overview

The $1.1 billion marine backlog—spanning naval vessels and submarine applications—exposes the company to U.S. government contract risk: the 10-K notes those sales may be subject to renegotiation of profit or termination at the election of the U.S. government. In fiscal 2026, approximately 1% of net sales went directly to the U.S. government and an estimated additional 7% indirectly, and the Aerospace & Defense segment's share of total revenue has grown from 33% in fiscal 2024 to 42% in fiscal 2026, increasing exposure to defense appropriation cycles and program cancellation risk.

See also: Industrials · Tools & Accessories

From RBC Bearings Incorporated's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Industrial segment (58.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)60.4
P/E (Fwd)33.6
Mkt Cap$17.4B
EV/EBITDA32.0
Profit Mgn15.4%
ROE9.0%
Rev Growth18.3%
Beta1.40
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV44%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our top ten customers collectively accounted for approximately 35%, 44% and 44% of our net sales during fiscal 2026, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • HIGHProductIndustrial segment58%
    10-K Item 1: 'Industrial Market (58% of net sales for the fiscal year ended March 28, 2026)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.0
Forward Pe
3.3
Ps
3.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.8
Forward P/E: 33.6xPEG: 1.31

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
4.7
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $550.27Resistance $624.64

Price Targets

$505
$539
$612
A.Upside-4.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.0% upside)
! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RBC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $539.19. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $561.90. Engine's entry $539.19 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Industrial segment (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $612.15 (+8.9%), stop $504.91 (−11.3%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RBC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $612.15 (-4.0% upside). Target $612.15 (+8.9%), stop $504.91 (−11.3%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $504.91.

What are the risks of investing in RBC?

Concentration risk — Product: Industrial segment (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is RBC overvalued or undervalued?

RBC Bearings Incorporated trades at a P/E of 60.4 (forward 33.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about RBC?

12 analysts cover RBC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $620.

What does RBC Bearings Incorporated do?RBC Bearings manufactures precision bearings, gearing, and engineered components for Industrial (58% of net sales) and...

RBC Bearings manufactures precision bearings, gearing, and engineered components for Industrial (58% of net sales) and Aerospace & Defense (42% of net sales) markets, operating 65 facilities across 11 countries with 5,816 employees. Revenue flows through OEM program wins and aftermarket distribution; backlog stood at $2.3 billion as of March 28, 2026.

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