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PZZAPapa John's International, Inc.Sell3.9·$33.42+2.52%
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Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.42: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.44; Below-average business quality.

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns trademark in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising,... Read more

$33.42+2.8% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#20 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.25%
IncomeYield5.64%(5y avg 2.87%)Payout221.69%at-risk
Stop $31.11Target $34.40(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$37.90+13.4%10 analysts
$34.40our TP
$33.42price
$37.90mean
$30
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.42: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.44; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Papa John's International, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-1.4% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.3
P/E (Fwd)18.6
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn1.4%
ROE
Rev Growth-7.7%
Beta1.13
Dividend5.64%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C3.44bearish
IV122%elevated
Max Pain$80+139.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -7.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.6
Declining revenue: -8%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
5.6

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.5
Bollinger
3.1
Support Resistance
3.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Net Margin
0.7
Operating Margin
2.1
Current Ratio
3.4
Moat
3.8
Piotroski F
4.4
Roa
5.2
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 235% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.70Resistance $35.10

Price Targets

$31
$34
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PZZA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $33.42: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.44; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $31.11. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the PZZA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.40 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $31.11. Stop-loss: $31.11.

What are the risks of investing in PZZA?

Target reached (-1.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is PZZA overvalued or undervalued?

Papa John's International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.3 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PZZA?

24 analysts cover PZZA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Papa John's International, Inc. do?Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns...

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns trademark in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International. The company operates dine-in and delivery restaurants. It also offers pizza and other food and beverage products. In addition, the company supplies pizza sauce, dough, food products, paper products, smallware, and cleaning supplies to restaurants. Papa John's International, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

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