Skip to main content
PZZAPapa John's International, Inc.Sell3.8·$31.91+0.82%
Open full analysis

Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.91: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns trademark in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising,... Read more

$31.91+3.3% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#20 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.43%
IncomeYield5.81%(5y avg 2.87%)Payout221.69%at-risk
Stop $29.78Target $32.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$37.90+18.8%10 analysts
$32.97our TP
$31.91price
$37.90mean
$30
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.91: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Papa John's International, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.09% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.1
P/E (Fwd)18.1
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn1.4%
ROE
Rev Growth-7.7%
Beta1.13
Dividend5.81%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV95%elevated
Max Pain$80+150.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -7.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.6
Declining revenue: -8%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.6
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.9
Obv
4.2
Rsi
4.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
5.3

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Net Margin
0.7
Operating Margin
2.1
Current Ratio
3.4
Moat
3.8
Piotroski F
4.4
Roa
5.2
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 235% FCF/NINo competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.2
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 581.0%
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $30.70Resistance $35.62

Price Targets

$30
$33
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.09% of cap)
! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PZZA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $31.91: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $29.78. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the PZZA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.97 (+3.3% upside). Prior stop was $29.78. Stop-loss: $29.78.

What are the risks of investing in PZZA?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.09% of cap).

Is PZZA overvalued or undervalued?

Papa John's International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 38.1 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PZZA?

24 analysts cover PZZA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Papa John's International, Inc. do?Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns...

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa Johns trademark in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Franchising, North America Commissaries, and International. The company operates dine-in and delivery restaurants. It also offers pizza and other food and beverage products. In addition, the company supplies pizza sauce, dough, food products, paper products, smallware, and cleaning supplies to restaurants. Papa John's International, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.) · SHAK (Shake Shack, Inc.) · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor)
Home Stocks PZZA

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga17d ago
Benzinga19d agoProduct
Benzinga19d agoProduct
Benzinga30d agoBankruptcy
Benzinga31d ago
Benzinga31d agoAnalyst
Benzinga32d ago
Benzinga32d agoMerger Acquisition
Benzinga35d agoAnalyst
Benzinga38d agoAnalyst
Benzinga38d agoAnalyst
Benzinga39d ago
Benzinga39d ago
Benzinga39d ago
Benzinga41d agoProduct
Benzinga63d ago