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PAYXPaychex, Inc.Sell5.4·$101.32+0.69%
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Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Paychex is an HCM company serving ~800,000 clients in the US and parts of Europe with payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions across three technology platforms. Revenue comes from subscription-based SaaS fees plus PEO co-employment services; the company completed its... Read more

$101.32-0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#72 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.73%(5y avg 2.83%)Payout95.36%at-risk
Stop $95.38Target $101.23(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$105.07+3.7%14 analysts
$101.23our TP
$101.32price
$105.07mean
$90
$140

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — Paychex, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jun 24, 20269d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.2
P/E (Fwd)17.1
Mkt Cap$36.1B
EV/EBITDA24.4
Profit Mgn26.6%
ROE
Rev Growth19.9%
Beta
Dividend4.73%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$210+107.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
3.1
Gap
5.0
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $90.76Resistance $103.30

Price Targets

$95
$101
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-24 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $101.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $95.38. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAYX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $101.23 (-0.1% upside). Prior stop was $95.38. Stop-loss: $95.38.

What are the risks of investing in PAYX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PAYX overvalued or undervalued?

Paychex, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.2 (forward 17.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAYX?

25 analysts cover PAYX with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $105.

What does Paychex, Inc. do?Paychex is an HCM company serving ~800,000 clients in the US and parts of Europe with payroll, HR, benefits, and...

Paychex is an HCM company serving ~800,000 clients in the US and parts of Europe with payroll, HR, benefits, and insurance solutions across three technology platforms. Revenue comes from subscription-based SaaS fees plus PEO co-employment services; the company completed its acquisition of Paycor HCM in April 2025, significantly expanding its upmarket presence.

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