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HSAIHesai GroupSell5.6·$17.10-1.72%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

The business is expanding revenue at 30% year-over-year, has beaten consensus earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and screens as the peer group's growth leader with best-in-class margins — but the stock is in a confirmed price downtrend with a death cross, and leverage of 9.2 times equity amplifies the downside if growth or cash generation disappoints, making the valuation discount real but the timing of entry highly uncertain.

Thesis pillars

  • Industry Leading Revenue GrowthStable
  • High Leverage Financial RiskImproving
  • Confirmed Price DowntrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hesai Group (HSAI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company provides gas sensor products, validation... Read more

$17.10+47.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#17 of 36 Auto Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.51%
Stop $16.10Target $25.52(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.7:1
Analyst target$28.35+65.8%19 analysts
$25.52our TP
$17.10price
$28.35mean
$36

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.6
P/E (Fwd)18.8
Mkt Cap$21.8B
EV/EBITDA-35.7
Profit Mgn14.9%
ROE7.5%
Rev Growth21.9%
Beta1.36
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.45bullish
IV98%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $15.70Resistance $19.40

Price Targets

$16
$26
A.Upside+47.4%
A.R:R4.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $17.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.10. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the HSAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.52 (+47.4% upside). Prior stop was $16.10. Stop-loss: $16.10.

What are the risks of investing in HSAI?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is HSAI overvalued or undervalued?

Hesai Group trades at a P/E of 34.6 (forward 18.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HSAI?

31 analysts cover HSAI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Hesai Group do?Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional...

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company provides gas sensor products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products. Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas. Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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