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Hesai Group (HSAI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.16 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company offers gas detection products, validation... Read more

$22.16+23.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 26 Auto Parts
Stop $20.63Target $27.49(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$30.54+37.8%21 analysts
$27.49our TP
$22.16price
$30.54mean
$38

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.16 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.5
P/E (Fwd)24.3
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA-1.4
Profit Mgn14.4%
ROE6.8%
Rev Growth39.0%
Beta1.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$13-43.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.84Resistance $24.96

Price Targets

$21
$27
A.Upside+24.1%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-19 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.16 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $20.63. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the HSAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.49 (+23.9% upside). Prior stop was $20.63. Stop-loss: $20.63.

What are the risks of investing in HSAI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is HSAI overvalued or undervalued?

Hesai Group trades at a P/E of 51.5 (forward 24.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HSAI?

32 analysts cover HSAI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Hesai Group do?Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of three-dimensional...

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company offers gas detection products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products. Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas. Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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