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HSAIHesai GroupSell6.0·$18.09+0.17%
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Hesai Group (HSAI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $18.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company offers gas detection products, validation... Read more

$18.09+50.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
Stop $16.82Target $27.24(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$30.27+67.3%21 analysts
$27.24our TP
$18.09price
$30.27mean
$36

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $18.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.6
P/E (Fwd)19.9
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA-16.7
Profit Mgn14.8%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth29.6%
Beta1.34
DividendNone
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV85%elevated
Max Pain$13-30.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.18Resistance $22.77

Price Targets

$17
$27
A.Upside+50.6%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSAI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $18.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $16.82. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HSAI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.24 (+50.6% upside). Prior stop was $16.82. Stop-loss: $16.82.

What are the risks of investing in HSAI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 9.2): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is HSAI overvalued or undervalued?

Hesai Group trades at a P/E of 37.6 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HSAI?

31 analysts cover HSAI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Hesai Group do?Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of three-dimensional...

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company offers gas detection products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products. Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas. Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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