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Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $109.44. BUY gates pass at $111.71, but the engine prefers a shallower entry for a wider margin of safety. Engine's entry $109.44 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Dorman Products is a leading aftermarket auto parts supplier offering approximately 144,000 distinct parts for passenger cars, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks, and specialty vehicles, sold primarily in North America through retailers, wholesale distributors, and dealers.... Read more

$111.71+21.7% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 26 Auto Parts
Entry $109.44(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $102.87Target $132.78(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1Setup A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$152.63+36.6%8 analysts
$132.78our TP
$111.71price
$152.63mean
$170

Wait for pullback to $109.44. BUY gates pass at $111.71, but the engine prefers a shallower entry for a wider margin of safety. Engine's entry $109.44 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.9
P/E (Fwd)12.2
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE14.7%
Rev Growth0.8%
Beta0.96
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$230+105.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertwo customers40%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, two customers each represented more than 10% of net sales and together accounted for approximately 40% of net sales'
  • MEDIUMGeographicChina38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our total volume of purchases of products was sourced from non-U.S. suppliers, with approximately 38% sourced from China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.1
Bollinger
2.8
52w Position
3.4

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.1
Quality Rank
7.0
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.1>=5.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $99.19Resistance $115.07

Price Targets

$103
$109
$133
A.Upside+18.9%
A.R:R1.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DORM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $109.44. BUY gates pass at $111.71, but the engine prefers a shallower entry for a wider margin of safety. Engine's entry $109.44 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $132.78 (+18.9%), stop $102.87 (−8.6%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DORM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $132.78 (+21.7% upside). Target $132.78 (+18.9%), stop $102.87 (−8.6%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $102.87.

Is DORM overvalued or undervalued?

Dorman Products, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DORM?

14 analysts cover DORM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $153.

What does Dorman Products, Inc. do?Dorman Products is a leading aftermarket auto parts supplier offering approximately 144,000 distinct parts for...

Dorman Products is a leading aftermarket auto parts supplier offering approximately 144,000 distinct parts for passenger cars, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks, and specialty vehicles, sold primarily in North America through retailers, wholesale distributors, and dealers. Revenue comes from branded and private-label parts; approximately 76% of 2025 products were sold under company-owned brands.

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