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AURAurora Innovation, Inc.Sell5.0·$6.33+3.26%
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Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.33: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Aurora Innovation develops autonomous self-driving technology and launched driverless commercial trucking operations in April 2025 via its Aurora Driver for Freight subscription service, targeting U.S. interstate freight corridors. The company plans a Driver as a Service model... Read more

$6.33+53.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#21 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-3.34%
Stop $5.92Target $9.76(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$11.22+77.2%12 analysts
$9.76our TP
$6.33price
$11.22mean
$4
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.33: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Aurora Innovation, Inc.

About Aurora Innovation, Inc.

Aurora Innovation incurred a $816 million net loss in fiscal 2025 as it transitioned from pure R&D to commercial operations, launching driverless commercial trucking in April 2025 with Hirschbach and Uber Freight after accumulating over 2,000 awarded and pending patents worldwide. The company employs approximately 1,900 people, roughly 1,600 of whom are focused on engineering and product, and first recognized commercial revenue in the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2025.

Aurora commercializes the Aurora Driver through two subscription services: Aurora Driver for Freight, targeting Class 8 trucking on high-volume interstate corridors, and Aurora Driver for Rides, targeting ride-hailing in partnership with Toyota and Uber. Early commercialization involves Aurora owning or leasing an initial fleet and investing in freight terminals; the company then plans to transition to an asset-light Driver as a Service model in which fleet operators own the vehicles and Aurora earns a fee per mile. Strategic manufacturing partnerships with PACCAR and Volvo cover vehicle integration, while AUMOVIO provides Tier 1 automotive supply chain support. Revenue remains nascent — the company expects significant losses to continue until commercial scale is achieved. Aurora's first driverless launch targeted Texas, which the company describes as having the largest freight market in the U.S. and a favorable regulatory environment.

Show full overview

Aurora's 10-K discloses reliance on single or limited source suppliers for components of the Aurora Driver hardware, meaning supply disruptions or component scarcity could cause manufacturing delays and materially affect the commercialization timeline. Aurora also faces competition from well-funded peers including Waymo, Tesla, Zoox/Amazon, and Torc Robotics, several of which have substantially greater financial and R&D resources; if any competitor broadly commercializes before Aurora, it may capture customer and partner relationships that might otherwise have been available to Aurora.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

From Aurora Innovation, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single or limited source suppliers
Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-14.5
Mkt Cap$12.0B
EV/EBITDA-12.0
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-44.3%
Rev Growth
Beta2.63
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$1-92.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle or limited source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'are also dependent on our suppliers, some of which are single or limited source suppliers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -10044% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 7.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
1.0
Beta
1.2
Short Interest
1.8
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
5.0
Days To Cover
5.5
High short interest justified: 17%High IV: 94%Above max pain $0Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $5.81Resistance $8.07

Price Targets

$6
$10
A.Upside+54.2%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.33: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.92. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AUR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.76 (+53.3% upside). Prior stop was $5.92. Stop-loss: $5.92.

What are the risks of investing in AUR?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single or limited source suppliers; Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0).

Is AUR overvalued or undervalued?

Aurora Innovation, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AUR?

15 analysts cover AUR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Aurora Innovation, Inc. do?Aurora Innovation develops autonomous self-driving technology and launched driverless commercial trucking operations in...

Aurora Innovation develops autonomous self-driving technology and launched driverless commercial trucking operations in April 2025 via its Aurora Driver for Freight subscription service, targeting U.S. interstate freight corridors. The company plans a Driver as a Service model earning revenue on a fee-per-mile basis, with ~1,900 employees and a $816 million net loss in fiscal 2025.

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