A forward P/E of 10.0 times, PEG of 0.33, and average earnings surprise of 67% above consensus describe a deeply discounted, operationally capable business — but a confirmed death-cross technical breakdown, a serious recent corporate filing, and 15% short interest collectively block the path to an actionable entry until the technical and corporate overhangs resolve.
Thesis pillars
- Extraordinary Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Deep Valuation Discount↑Improving
- Exceptional Earnings Execution→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $47.25, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Issuing Banks.
BILL Holdings operates a financial operations platform for small and midsize businesses, automating accounts payable, accounts receivable, and spend and expense management (including BILL Divvy corporate cards) through an AI-enabled, network-based system. As of June 30, 2025,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $47.25, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Issuing Banks. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: aggressive.
About BILL Holdings, Inc.
About BILL Holdings, Inc.
BILL Holdings processed approximately $330 billion in Total Payment Volume across roughly 493,800 businesses and 8.3 million network members during fiscal 2025, generating $23.8 million of net income - its first full year of GAAP profitability after net losses of $28.9 million and $223.7 million in fiscal 2024 and 2023, respectively. Network members grew approximately 18% year over year as of June 30, 2025.
BILL earns subscription fees, transaction fees (including ad valorem fees tied to payment amount), and interest on customer funds held for payment processing, serving SMBs through accounts payable and receivable automation plus the BILL Spend and Expense product, which issues BILL Divvy corporate cards through partner Issuing Banks. For accounts payable, businesses capture and route bills for approval and pay suppliers via ACH, virtual card, real-time payments, checks, or cross-border transfer to more than 130 countries; for accounts receivable, businesses invoice clients and collect via a branded payment portal. Distribution runs through direct sales plus indirect channels - accounting firms offering client advisory services, financial institution white-label partnerships, and software integrations with QuickBooks, NetSuite, Sage Intacct, and Xero. For a substantial majority of BILL Divvy Card credit extensions, BILL purchases participation interests in the resulting receivables from its Issuing Banks and bears the credit risk if a spending business defaults, funding that exposure partly through warehouse credit facilities.
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Two 2026 disclosures point to a company recalibrating cost structure and leadership simultaneously: on May 7, 2026, BILL announced a workforce reduction of up to 30% with an estimated $30 million to $60 million in restructuring charges, framed as an effort to improve organizational agility and profitability, and on May 26, 2026, the company disclosed that its Chief Technology Officer and its EVP/GM of Payments and Financial Services would depart effective June 30, 2026 while President and COO John Rettig moved into a newly created Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer role. Coming within three weeks of each other, the scale of the workforce cut and the concurrent departure of two product-and-technology executives together suggest a strategic reset extending beyond routine cost management.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From BILL Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — BILL Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS This Bill Gates Stock Just Hit a New 52-Week High and 1 Signal Says There’s More Room to Run - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Congress’s stock trading bill doesn’t solve the real problem - The Hill — The Hill negative
- NEWS Congress’s stock trading bill doesn’t solve the real problem - thehill.com — thehill.com negative
- NEWS Wolfe Research Maintains BILL Holdings(BILL.US) With Buy Rating, Raises Target Price to $60 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS Wolfe Research Maintains BILL Holdings(BILL.US) With Buy Rating, Raises Target Price to $60 - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
Generated 2026-09-14T06:36:55Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartyIssuing Banks10-K Item 1A: 'For a substantial majority of extensions of credit to BILL Spend and Expense spending businesses ... we purchase from the Issuing Banks participation interests in the accounts receivables'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02MEDIUMBILL announced President/COO John Rettig moving to a new Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer role, and the departures of CTO Ken Moss and EVP/GM Payments & Financial Services Mary Kay Bowman effective June 30, 2026; both will serve in an advisory capacity through June 30, 2027.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-07Item 2.05MEDIUMBILL announced a workforce reduction of up to 30% to improve organizational agility and profitability, estimating $30 million to $60 million in restructuring charges, mostly severance and benefits, with most costs to hit fiscal Q4 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOWBILL's Board appointed existing CFO Rohini Jain to additionally serve as principal accounting officer effective March 11, 2026; no additional compensation, routine administrative designation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $47.25, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.1%; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Issuing Banks. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $44.81. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $51.57 (+9.1% upside). Prior stop was $44.81. Stop-loss: $44.81.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Issuing Banks; Thin upside margin: 9.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
BILL Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
29 analysts cover BILL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $57.
What does BILL Holdings, Inc. do?BILL Holdings operates a financial operations platform for small and midsize businesses, automating accounts payable,...
BILL Holdings operates a financial operations platform for small and midsize businesses, automating accounts payable, accounts receivable, and spend and expense management (including BILL Divvy corporate cards) through an AI-enabled, network-based system. As of June 30, 2025, approximately 493,800 businesses and 8.3 million network members used the platform, which processed about $330 billion in Total Payment Volume during fiscal 2025; the company relies on partner Issuing Banks for a substantial majority of the credit it extends through BILL Divvy Cards.