BioCryst has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 99% above estimates and trades at 13.3 times forward earnings with a 30% free cash flow margin, creating a setup with roughly 104% upside to analyst consensus; a 15% short interest and 116% implied volatility mean any earnings stumble would be met with outsized selling pressure.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak High Magnitude→Stable
- Deep Value Forward Multiple→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.66: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 7.2/10 and A.R:R 8.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.70; Negative price momentum.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) with FDA approval since December 2020, alongside peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) for influenza. Revenue comes from direct U.S. ORLADEYO sales... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.66: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 7.2/10 and A.R:R 8.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.70; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ORLADEYO (berotralstat), BioCryst's oral once-daily prophylactic HAE therapy, received FDA approval in December 2020 for patients 12 years and older, followed by a second FDA approval in December 2025 for a pediatric pellet formulation for patients aged 2 to under 12. BioCryst targets a global peak of $1 billion in annual ORLADEYO net revenues, based on five full years of U.S. commercialization and an HAE prevalence of 1 in 33,000 to 1 in 67,000 people. In October 2025, the company completed the sale of its European ORLADEYO operations to Neopharmed Gentili for $250 million, while retaining exclusive supply obligations for the European territory.
BioCryst generates revenue from direct ORLADEYO sales in the U.S. through a specialty pharmacy operating the EMPOWER Patient Services program. Japan commercialization is handled by Torii Pharmaceutical under a tiered royalty agreement ranging from 20% on annual sales below a prespecified threshold to 80% above it; pan-Latin America is covered by Pint Pharma under an exclusive collaboration. Peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) had a $69 million HHS contract for up to 95,625 doses over five years, but in May 2025 the U.S. ASPR notified the company of its intent not to exercise any additional optional ordering periods under the agreement. The company funded ORLADEYO development in part through royalty purchase agreements with RPI 2019 Intermediate Finance Trust and OMERS Capital Markets, creating ongoing royalty payment obligations distinct from traditional debt. Following the January 23, 2026 merger with Astria Therapeutics, navenibart—a monoclonal antibody plasma kallikrein inhibitor targeting every 3- and 6-month dosing for HAE—became the company's primary Phase 3 pipeline asset.
Show full overview
Navenibart constitutes the critical pipeline binary event: it is currently in Phase 3 clinical development with FDA Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations, and if trial results are negative or delayed the near-term pipeline would consist only of early-stage assets—Phase 1 BCX17725 for Netherton syndrome (up to 12-patient data expected by end of 2026) and Phase 1 Avoralstat for diabetic macular edema. STAR-0310, an OX40 antagonist acquired in the Astria merger, is in Phase 1a with the company planning to seek strategic alternatives for the asset, further concentrating the actionable pipeline around navenibart.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
From BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-23Recent Developments — BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nasdaq, S&P 500 futures rise ahead of PMI data, Iran tensions cap risk appetite: Why NVDA, GME, AAOI, BCRX are keeping t — MSN neutral
- NEWS BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS BioCryst (BCRX) Is Up 11.7% After New HAE Data Spotlight ORLADEYO And Navenibart Potential - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS BioCryst gains amid takeover speculation - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS BioCryst (BCRX) Quarterly Figures: Reported EPS Tops Expectations in the Latest Reading; Price Reaction: The Share Price — Vinanet positive
Generated 2026-08-23T03:21:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductORLADEYO10-K Item 1: 'We have built a robust commercial infrastructure to support the successful commercialization of ORLADEYO'
- MEDIUMpipelinenavenibart10-K Item 1: 'Navenibart is currently in Phase 3 clinical development, and the FDA has granted Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations to navenibart'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Volatile — 5.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.66: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 7.2/10 and A.R:R 8.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.70; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $8.88. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $18.11 (+89.7% upside). Prior stop was $8.88. Stop-loss: $8.88.
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -30.9%), Material insider selling (26 sells, 3.00% of cap).
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover BCRX with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $21.
What does BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary...
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) with FDA approval since December 2020, alongside peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) for influenza. Revenue comes from direct U.S. ORLADEYO sales and royalties from partners including Torii (Japan); the company sold its European ORLADEYO business to Neopharmed Gentili for $250 million in October 2025 and acquired Phase 3 navenibart via the Astria merger in January 2026.