Value
8.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
BCRX · Why this verdict
Why BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 30%, FCF yield 12.3%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 153%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,573,857 (0.120% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.8 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
- ▸High IV: 102%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:14.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:55d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
14.61
Upside
+119.8%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Insider at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Catalyst at 7.5, and Growth at 7.2; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Peer rank at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 14.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.