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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $8.18. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.15. Engine's entry $8.18 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO; Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3.

BioCryst is a global biotech commercializing ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an approved oral daily HAE prophylaxis, while developing navenibart (Phase 3 injectable HAE) acquired via the January 2026 Astria Therapeutics merger. Revenue is driven by ORLADEYO with the company estimating... Read more

$9.15+106.9% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#3 of 29 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Entry $8.18(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $7.46Target $18.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 13.2:1Setup A.R:R 15.3:1
Analyst target$21.40+133.9%10 analysts
$18.62our TP
$9.15price
$21.40mean
$32

Wait for pullback to $8.18. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.15. Engine's entry $8.18 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO; Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Earnings in 5 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.8Qual8.7Grw5.0Mom4.7Sent7.9Ins3.9Peer7.6Tech6.2Risk3.56.6OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO
Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn30.2%
ROE—
Rev Growth209.1%
Beta0.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.60bearish
IV81%elevated
Max Pain$1-89.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductORLADEYO
    10-K Item 1: 'We have built a robust commercial infrastructure to support the successful commercialization of ORLADEYO...our business strategy includes leveraging this established commercial platform'
  • HIGHpipelinenavenibart Phase 3
    10-K Item 1: 'Navenibart is currently in Phase 3 clinical development, and the FDA has granted Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations to navenibart for the treatment of HAE'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 13.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $8.56Resistance $9.98

Price Targets

$7
$8
$19
A.Upside+103.5%
A.R:R13.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)15.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2%
Max %4%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 5 days (≤7d hard window)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BCRX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $8.18. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $9.15. Engine's entry $8.18 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO; Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. V9 Gate blocked: Earnings in 5 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Target $18.62 (+103.5%), stop $7.46 (−22.7%), Setup A.R:R 15.3:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BCRX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.62 (+106.9% upside). Target $18.62 (+103.5%), stop $7.46 (−22.7%), Setup A.R:R 15.3:1. Stop-loss: $7.46.

What are the risks of investing in BCRX?

Concentration risk — Product: ORLADEYO; Concentration risk — Pipeline: navenibart Phase 3; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is BCRX overvalued or undervalued?

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BCRX?

16 analysts cover BCRX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $21.

What does BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?BioCryst is a global biotech commercializing ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an approved oral daily HAE prophylaxis, while...

BioCryst is a global biotech commercializing ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an approved oral daily HAE prophylaxis, while developing navenibart (Phase 3 injectable HAE) acquired via the January 2026 Astria Therapeutics merger. Revenue is driven by ORLADEYO with the company estimating peak global sales potential of $1 billion annually.

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