BioCryst has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging roughly 99% above estimates and trades at 13.3 times forward earnings with a 30% free cash flow margin, creating a setup with roughly 104% upside to analyst consensus; a 15% short interest and 116% implied volatility mean any earnings stumble would be met with outsized selling pressure.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak High Magnitude↓Deteriorating
- Deep Value Forward Multiple→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Wait for pullback to $8.08. BUY gates pass at $8.37, but earnings in 5 days (event risk) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $8.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) with FDA approval since December 2020, alongside peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) for influenza. Revenue comes from direct U.S. ORLADEYO sales... Read more
Wait for pullback to $8.08. BUY gates pass at $8.37, but earnings in 5 days (event risk) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $8.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Exceptional business at discount. Quality + value alignment. Score 7.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ORLADEYO (berotralstat), BioCryst's oral once-daily prophylactic HAE therapy, received FDA approval in December 2020 for patients 12 years and older, followed by a second FDA approval in December 2025 for a pediatric pellet formulation for patients aged 2 to under 12. BioCryst targets a global peak of $1 billion in annual ORLADEYO net revenues, based on five full years of U.S. commercialization and an HAE prevalence of 1 in 33,000 to 1 in 67,000 people. In October 2025, the company completed the sale of its European ORLADEYO operations to Neopharmed Gentili for $250 million, while retaining exclusive supply obligations for the European territory.
BioCryst generates revenue from direct ORLADEYO sales in the U.S. through a specialty pharmacy operating the EMPOWER Patient Services program. Japan commercialization is handled by Torii Pharmaceutical under a tiered royalty agreement ranging from 20% on annual sales below a prespecified threshold to 80% above it; pan-Latin America is covered by Pint Pharma under an exclusive collaboration. Peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) had a $69 million HHS contract for up to 95,625 doses over five years, but in May 2025 the U.S. ASPR notified the company of its intent not to exercise any additional optional ordering periods under the agreement. The company funded ORLADEYO development in part through royalty purchase agreements with RPI 2019 Intermediate Finance Trust and OMERS Capital Markets, creating ongoing royalty payment obligations distinct from traditional debt. Following the January 23, 2026 merger with Astria Therapeutics, navenibart—a monoclonal antibody plasma kallikrein inhibitor targeting every 3- and 6-month dosing for HAE—became the company's primary Phase 3 pipeline asset.
Show full overview
Navenibart constitutes the critical pipeline binary event: it is currently in Phase 3 clinical development with FDA Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations, and if trial results are negative or delayed the near-term pipeline would consist only of early-stage assets—Phase 1 BCX17725 for Netherton syndrome (up to 12-patient data expected by end of 2026) and Phase 1 Avoralstat for diabetic macular edema. STAR-0310, an OX40 antagonist acquired in the Astria merger, is in Phase 1a with the company planning to seek strategic alternatives for the asset, further concentrating the actionable pipeline around navenibart.
See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
From BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Price Target Raised to $13.00/Share From $12.00 by JP Morgan - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Price Target Raised to $13.00/Share From $12.00 by JP Morgan - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
- NEWS BCRX Maintained by JP Morgan -- Price Target Raised to $13.00 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS J.P. Morgan Maintains BioCryst Pharmaceuticals(BCRX.US) With Hold Rating, Raises Target Price to $13 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS J.P. Morgan Maintains BioCryst Pharmaceuticals(BCRX.US) With Hold Rating, Raises Target Price to $13 - moomoo.com — moomoo.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductORLADEYO10-K Item 1: 'We have built a robust commercial infrastructure to support the successful commercialization of ORLADEYO'
- MEDIUMpipelinenavenibart10-K Item 1: 'Navenibart is currently in Phase 3 clinical development, and the FDA has granted Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations to navenibart'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $8.08. BUY gates pass at $8.37, but earnings in 5 days (event risk) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $8.08 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Exceptional business at discount. Quality + value alignment. Target $17.87 (+113.5%), stop $7.51 (−11.5%), A.R:R 11.2:1. Score 7.3/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.87 (+113.6% upside). Target $17.87 (+113.5%), stop $7.51 (−11.5%), A.R:R 11.2:1. Stop-loss: $7.51.
Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
17 analysts cover BCRX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $21.
What does BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary...
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals commercializes ORLADEYO (berotralstat), an oral once-daily prophylactic therapy for hereditary angioedema (HAE) with FDA approval since December 2020, alongside peramivir injection (RAPIVAB) for influenza. Revenue comes from direct U.S. ORLADEYO sales and royalties from partners including Torii (Japan); the company sold its European ORLADEYO business to Neopharmed Gentili for $250 million in October 2025 and acquired Phase 3 navenibart via the Astria merger in January 2026.