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XPOXPO, Inc.Sell5.2·$221.52+2.43%
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XPO, Inc. (XPO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $221.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away).

We use our proprietary technology to move goods efficiently through supply chains for approximately 55,000 customers in North America and Europe. As of December 31, 2025, we had approximately 37,000 employees and 592 locations in 17 countries.

$221.52+2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#1 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.28%
Stop $206.12Target $227.36(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$224.59+1.4%22 analysts
$227.36our TP
$221.52price
$224.59mean
$105
$275

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $221.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11

Recent Developments — XPO, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K May 26, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: By: | /s/ Kyle Wismans | | Kyle Wismans | | Chief Financial Officer

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.5% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)74.1
P/E (Fwd)36.0
Mkt Cap$25.4B
EV/EBITDA22.6
Profit Mgn4.2%
ROE19.9%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta1.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$48-78.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    By: | /s/ Kyle Wismans | | Kyle Wismans | | Chief Financial Officer
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
1.3
Forward Pe
3.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
4.1
Ps
8.2
Forward P/E: 36.0xPEG: 2.40
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $195.51Resistance $232.00

Price Targets

$206
$227
A.Upside+2.6%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XPO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $221.52 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $206.12. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the XPO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $227.36 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $206.12. Stop-loss: $206.12.

What are the risks of investing in XPO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Is XPO overvalued or undervalued?

XPO, Inc. trades at a P/E of 74.1 (forward 36.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XPO?

28 analysts cover XPO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $225.

What does XPO, Inc. do?We use our proprietary technology to move goods efficiently through supply chains for approximately 55,000 customers in...

We use our proprietary technology to move goods efficiently through supply chains for approximately 55,000 customers in North America and Europe. As of December 31, 2025, we had approximately 37,000 employees and 592 locations in 17 countries.

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