Value
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.2 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 36.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.42
XPO · Why this verdict
Why XPO (XPO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $517,472 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Above max pain $48
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.7 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.72
Upside
-10.1%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.64>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.6 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.72 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.6, Growth at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Value at 3.3, Technical at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.