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ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.Sell4.4·$237.21-3.48%
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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $237.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.4/10.

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided... Read more

$237.21+4.0% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#6 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.69%
IncomeYield0.47%(5y avg 0.45%)Payout23.59%sustainable
Stop $220.79Target $246.99(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$221.82-6.5%22 analysts
$246.99our TP
$237.21price
$221.82mean
$155
$260

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $237.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.4/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.4/10
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.3
P/E (Fwd)38.9
Mkt Cap$51.1B
EV/EBITDA29.8
Profit Mgn18.5%
ROE23.3%
Rev Growth-2.9%
Beta1.18
Dividend0.47%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70bullish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$310+30.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.2
Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.4
Forward Pe
2.8
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.4
Ps
3.9
Forward P/E: 38.9xPEG: 3.51Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $198.71Resistance $252.03

Price Targets

$221
$247
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ODFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $237.21 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.4/10. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $220.79. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ODFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $246.99 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $220.79. Stop-loss: $220.79.

What are the risks of investing in ODFL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.4/10; Expensive valuation.

Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. trades at a P/E of 51.3 (forward 38.9). TrendMatrix value score: 2.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ODFL?

32 analysts cover ODFL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $222.

What does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. do?We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional,...

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. Through strategic alliances, we also provide LTL services throughout North America.

Related stocks: TFII (TFI International Inc.) · XPO (XPO, Inc.) · SNDR (Schneider National, Inc.) · KNX (Knight-Swift Transportation Hol) · SAIA (Saia, Inc.)
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