Saia's solid earnings beat streak and above-average technical momentum cannot overcome a negative analyst upside and free cash flow conversion rate of only 14%, making the stock a hold at best until valuation normalizes to a more attractive entry point.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- Rich Valuation Negative Upside↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $399.00: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $399.00: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — Saia, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Saia Q2 EPS $3.51 Beats $3.32 Estimate, Sales $956.500M Beat $951.296M Estimate — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Neutral on Saia, Raises Price Target to $470 — benzinga Jul 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Raymond James Maintains Outperform on Saia, Lowers Price Target to $475 — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
- NEWS Keysight To Rally Over 24%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Monday — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
- NEWS B of A Securities Upgrades Saia to Buy, Raises Price Target to $502 — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-31T05:18:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $399.00: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $376.49. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $418.37 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $376.49. Stop-loss: $376.49.
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Saia, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.1 (forward 27.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover SAIA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $465.
What does Saia, Inc. do?We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately...
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload and expedited transportation and other logistics services across North America.