Saia's solid earnings beat streak and above-average technical momentum cannot overcome a negative analyst upside and free cash flow conversion rate of only 14%, making the stock a hold at best until valuation normalizes to a more attractive entry point.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Consistency↑Improving
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- Rich Valuation Negative Upside↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. At $343.07, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload... Read more
Sell if holding. At $343.07, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Saia, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Saia (SAIA) Q3 earnings: what to expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Saia Inc. Earns Two 2026 Quest for Quality Awards from Logistics Management - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Saia Inc. Earns Two 2026 Quest for Quality Awards from Logistics Management - quiverquant.com — quiverquant.com positive
- NEWS Saia Inc (SAIA) Shares Fall 4.7% -- What GF Score of 97 Tells In - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Analysts’ Opinions Are Mixed on These Industrial Goods Stocks: Ameresco (AMRC), ArcBest (ARCB) and Saia (SAIA) - The Glo — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T10:27:55Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $343.07, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $319.06. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $378.26 (+10.3% upside). Prior stop was $319.06. Stop-loss: $319.06.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Saia, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.5 (forward 24.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover SAIA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $420.
What does Saia, Inc. do?We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately...
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload and expedited transportation and other logistics services across North America.