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WDSWoodside Energy Group LimitedHold6.2·$22.85
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Woodside Energy trades at an attractive valuation with an EV/EBITDA multiple and P/E ratio that score well relative to peers, but revenue has declined 11% year-over-year, free cash flow is negative relative to net income, and growth prospects are absent as an oil and gas exploration company facing commodity price and production headwinds.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Energy Peers→Stable
  • Dividend Yield Trap Risk↓Deteriorating
  • Revenue Decline Negative Fcf→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

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Woodside Energy Group Limited (WDS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas... Read more

$22.85-9.8% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#30 of 49 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.29%
IncomeYield5.01%(5y avg 6.51%)Payout69.78%
Stop $21.93Analyst target $20.62(reached)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst consensus$24.26+6.2%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 116d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Feb 22, 2027116d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.2
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$43.4B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn22.2%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth13.0%
Beta-0.16
Dividend5.01%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$15-34.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 116d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.44Resistance $23.82

Price Targets

A.Upside-9.8%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-22 (116d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WDS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.85, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $20.62 reached (−9.8%), stop $21.93 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.6:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WDS stock price target?

Analyst target $20.62 reached (−9.8% from $22.85); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $20.62 reached (−9.8%), stop $21.93 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.6:1. Stop-loss: $21.93.

What are the risks of investing in WDS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is WDS overvalued or undervalued?

Woodside Energy Group Limited trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about WDS?

17 analysts cover WDS with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Woodside Energy Group Limited do?Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of...

Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas liquids. The company holds interests in the Pluto LNG, North West Shelf, Wheatstone and Julimar-Brunello, Bass Strait, Ngujima-Yin FPSO, Okha FPSO, Pyrenees FPSO, Macedon, Shenzi, Mad dog, Greater Angostura, as well as Scarborough, Sangomar, Trion, Calypso, Browse, Liard, Ruby, Sangomar, Atlantis, Woodside Solar opportunity, and Sunrise and Troubadour. It is also involved in the development of new energy products and lower-carbon services. The company was formerly known as Woodside Petroleum Ltd and changed its name to Woodside Energy Group Ltd in May 2022. Woodside Energy Group Ltd was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.

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