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VMCVulcan Materials Company (HoldiBuy Wait5.4·$288.78+1.51%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Vulcan Materials shows strong positive price momentum with volume accumulation and a bullish technical setup, but two of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates, the stock trades at a premium valuation with a forward price-to-earnings of 27x, and free cash flow represents only 22% of net income, raising earnings quality concerns.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive Price Momentum AccumulationImproving
  • Premium Valuation Low Free CashflowStable
  • Elevated Put Call Options PositioningDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitGrowthModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Earnings in 1 day (2026-07-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $273.31. At $288.78 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $273.31 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks,... Read more

$288.78+1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#10 of 14 Building Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.66%
IncomeYield0.74%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout23.58%sustainable
Entry $273.31(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $258.06Target $293.28(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$325.86+12.8%22 analysts
$293.28our TP
$288.78price
$325.86mean
$198
$365

Wait for pullback to $273.31. At $288.78 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $273.31 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/8 gates (clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-28
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.1
P/E (Fwd)26.4
Mkt Cap$36.9B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta1.05
Dividend0.74%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$430+48.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On May 11, Item 5.07. | Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders. ---|--- On May 8, 2026, the Company held its annual meeting of shareholders (the "Annual Meeting").
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $272.43Resistance $306.99

Price Targets

$258
$273
$293
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.5% upside)
! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $273.31. At $288.78 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $273.31 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $293.28 (+1.6%), stop $258.06 (−11.9%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $293.28 (+1.5% upside). Target $293.28 (+1.6%), stop $258.06 (−11.9%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $258.06.

What are the risks of investing in VMC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is VMC overvalued or undervalued?

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi trades at a P/E of 33.1 (forward 26.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about VMC?

29 analysts cover VMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $326.

What does Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi do?Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed...

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks, ships, barges and trains, we provide the materials needed for the infrastructure that maintains and expands the U.S. economy.

Related stocks: CX (Cemex, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored) · MLM (Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.) · EXP (Eagle Materials Inc) · CRH (CRH PLC) · JHX (James Hardie Industries plc.)
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