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VMCVulcan Materials Company (HoldiSell5.3·$279.00+3.34%
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Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi (VMC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Building Materials

Sell if holding. At $279.00, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks,... Read more

$279.00+5.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 12 Building Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.68%
IncomeYield0.75%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout23.58%sustainable
Stop $263.82Target $294.05(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$326.73+17.1%22 analysts
$294.05our TP
$279.00price
$326.73mean
$198
$365

Sell if holding. At $279.00, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.4%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.0
P/E (Fwd)25.8
Mkt Cap$36.2B
EV/EBITDA17.6
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta1.06
Dividend0.75%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.24bearish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $251.92Resistance $288.98

Price Targets

$264
$294
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $279.00, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $263.82. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $294.05 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $263.82. Stop-loss: $263.82.

What are the risks of investing in VMC?

Thin upside margin: 5.4%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is VMC overvalued or undervalued?

Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi trades at a P/E of 33.0 (forward 25.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VMC?

28 analysts cover VMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $327.

What does Vulcan Materials Company (Holdi do?Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed...

Company operates primarily in the U.S. and is the nation's largest supplier of construction aggregates (mainly crushed stone, sand and gravel) and a major producer of aggregates-intensive downstream products such as asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete. Delivered by trucks, ships, barges and trains, we provide the materials needed for the infrastructure that maintains and expands the U.S. economy.

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